Full frame sensor future prices

Discussion in 'Digital Discussion & Q&A' started by jvgig, Mar 15, 2008.

  1. jvgig

    jvgig TPF Noob!

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    When will full frame sensors be in cameras at the $1500 price point? A year? two? Just wanting to know if it is worthwhile to pay for EF lenses so I don't have to replace every lens for my next upgrade (not in the near future, but not 5 years either).

    Thanks
     
  2. skieur

    skieur TPF Noob!

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    That might never happen because the advantages of full frame sensors could easily be negated by a break through in designing the less than full frame sensor cameras. Bottom line is that more compact cameras with light, easier to handle lenses will likely be more in demand than large full sensor cameras with heavy and large telephoto lenses...and where the demand is, that is where the research and development goes.

    skieur
     
  3. Sw1tchFX

    Sw1tchFX TPF Noob!

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    Full frame is the future of the pro-level, it's obvious.

    However, it's going to take alot more than a couple years for the sensor to trickle down, if at all, to the consumer level, eg. Canon x0D / Nikon Dx00's.

    I don't think you'll ever see a D40ish body with a 35mm size sensor in it.

    Methinks this is what the gameplan is going to be.

    Canon is already there, Nikon's going to make a 5D with the nikon logo on it. Basicly, I'm guessing a slow D3 without a vertical grip or pop-up flash. It will cost at least $3000.

    Imagine, a 12 or 14MP D300 with a full frame sensor on it. SWEEET.

    Canon already did it with the 5D, except (IMO) the 5D is better than the 1Ds in respect to ergonomics. vertical grip optional for size and weight, and it doesn't take 2 hands to operate the LCD menus, whoever made that decision at Canon HQ should be fired.
     
  4. Garbz

    Garbz No longer a newbie, moving up!

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    Simple economics may prevent this technology from "trickling down". The facts are simple. Smaller sensors = greater utilisation of a platter and greater yield rates of individual sensors.

    Even as technology improves one thing that doesn't change is typically the cost of the platter. Now if they can get 100% yield rates, then full frame sensors may become more affordable. But the reality is that if yield rates improve it also becomes much more profitable to produce APS sensors.

    This simply isn't as easy as computer processors as there's always ways to cram more transistors on the same wafer, but in sensor technology the only thing that happens is the megapixels increase. The cost of production remains the same, and is likely to remain the same unless there is some major breakthrough in manufacturing.
     
  5. Socrates

    Socrates TPF Noob!

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    My opinion is "never." Canon and Nikon are not stupid enough to anger the millions of customers that need to trash their lenses.
     
  6. JIP

    JIP No longer a newbie, moving up!

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    I think it depends on your personal goals. If you plan to be a professional photographer and will be able to buy a $3000+ camera in the future go with it. If you will stay/be a hobbyist (I will not assume what you are) go with what you can afford. I agree withthe people who say a full-frame sensor will not crack the $1000 mark but you know stranger things have happened. I would not though doubt the camera industries capacity to piss off the public.
     
  7. Big Mike

    Big Mike I am Big, I am Mike Staff Member Supporting Member

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    If the full frame cameras go down to $1000...how low will the crop sensor cameras go? Then how low will the P&S digicams have to go?

    Camera companies have a market structure, they try to create different segments and if they mess with one of those segments, it could affect the others.

    As the market dictates (competition etc) the prices may come down but don't expect too much, too soon.
     
  8. jvgig

    jvgig TPF Noob!

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    Assuming lens technology is fairly constant (lens sizes will not change much), and computing technology and chip/sensor manufacturing is always advancing, and that a larger sensor will always be able to collect more light, hence give a better picture, then I would venture to guess that full frame sensors will be used in the lower end dslr and even larger than current full frames will be used in the professional line. Since the camera chassis's size is unlikely to change and advances in materials will allow it to be thinner which will provide even more room, and the processing unit will be smaller or the same size, and the power source will either be smaller or the same size, and the components will produce less heat, then I would be shocked if camera R&D just decided to stick with partial frame sensors as it would lead to a stagnant market not to far in the future.

    Either that, or lens technology will drastically change, which would result in starting over anyway.

    technology from the slr market trickles down to the P&S, however, since the size of the lens is not as big of a factor, miniaturization will continue to take priority in the minds of many consumers. Within the next 5 years, I would venture to say that P&S cameras will approach the 20mpix mark, which will allow digital zoom to be less of a problem, thus further reducing the size of the camera. Its will become, even more than is so today, a completely different market.

    That was my logic at least which led me to believe that with in the next 5 years there would probably be full frame senors in the prosumer category.
    Any thoughts?
     
  9. Alex_B

    Alex_B No longer a newbie, moving up!

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    I want square sensors ... 35x35mm .. all full frame lenses should be able to cope with them. there might be some light fall off in the corners. but at least i will be able to crop 3x2 or 2x3 anytime from one exposure. and people would not need vertical grips anymore ;)
     
  10. onedayillknowbetter

    onedayillknowbetter TPF Noob!

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    I'm not sure that I would ever want the price on those cameras to go down.
    I mean, look at photography in the past 8-10 years. I mean, think about all those kids who would buy the cheapest SLR available and would apply for the same jobs as you?
    I just know that there has been an extreme increase in "photographers" recently, and I can't imagine what the number would be if the only camera worth buying was an SLR.
     
  11. Village Idiot

    Village Idiot No longer a newbie, moving up!

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    Practically new condition, used 5D's are selling for $1700.

    It would take a lot to get the same quality out of a current gen crop sensor compared to a current gen FF sensor. Just look at the 5d. There's been what, three generations of XXD cameras and now the 40D is just getting up to the same image quality of a 5D that's 2-3 years old.

    FF sensors have drastically lower noise because the pixel density is much less than a crop sensor. I forget the mathematics, but the new 22mp 1D is about the same pixel density as the 10mp 1.6x 40D. Plus having a 16mp camera that has very little noise at higher ISO's and can print high quality 200-300 DPI images at much larger print sizes before losing quality, you have an advatange there. Just compare the IQ of the 22mp 1dMKII to the 10MP e-520 (if it's out yet....if not the e-510). There's just no comparison and if you try and put 22mp on a 2.0x crop sensor, then you're going to have a crappy image. It's bad enough that Olympus applies NR to RAW files making some turn out a but plasticy. I can do that in photoshop, I don't want my camera doing it.
     
  12. Early

    Early TPF Noob!

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    I kinda have a feeling they’ll be coming out with larger sensors on some of the advanced amateur cameras, such as say a Sony A800 in the not so far distant future.
     

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