LaForet: Dedicated Cameras are Coming to an End for all but PROS

[dolina]

I am sharing this on every photo forum I am a member of as we are either working or hobbyist photographer who have probably bought a mirrorless/SLR camera. I find it a fun topic to talk about, assuming you aren't selling these still cameras.

Vincent LaForet was the first to promote the coming of HD video onto SLRs making his thoughts on the ongoing decline of still cameras have weight.

Without further adieu read this blog post below.

Prediction The Age of the Standalone Still Camera is Coming to an End for all but PROS Vincent Laforet s Blog

Note to Vincent: Get someone to proof read for you.

This video below expounds LaForet's thoughts with some rounded numbers



Here are some more precise numbers to supplement the blog and video.

http://lensvid.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Infographic-1920-1200-ver-2-0.jpg

Source: LensVid Exclusive What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2013 - LensVid.comLensVid.com

Production, Shipment of Digital Still Cameras in 2014

42.8 million - still cameras covering point & shoots, mirrorless and SLRs
- 29.28 million point & shoots
- 3.17 million mirrorless
- 10.32 million SLRs

Production, Shipment of Digital Still Cameras in 2013

61.0 million - still cameras covering point & shoots, mirrorless and SLRs
- 44.19 million point & shoots
- 3.18 million mirrorless
- 13.64 million SLRs

Production, Shipment of Interchangeable Lenses in 2014

22.3 million lenses covering crop & full frame
- 5.7 million full frame lenses
- 16.6 million crop lenses

Production, Shipment of Interchangeable Lenses in 2013

25.88 million22.3 million lenses covering crop & full frame
- 6.01 million full frame lenses
- 19.87 million crop lenses

vs

1.3 billion smartphones shipped in 2014

Of which 1 billion are Android and 193 million are iPhones

Makes me wish I used all the money I spent on Canon & Apple gear went into Apple stock at $7.00/share in 2002.

What makes the smartphone market so big is that a sizeable chunk of smartphone users are on contract so they get upgraded phones every 12, 24 or 36 months. These upgrades are "pushed" on them rather than us working/hobbyist photographers "pulling" these upgrades with our still cameras.

I also think just like the PC shipping figures still cameras are either abandoned in favor of smartphones/tablets or upgraded based on need (the subject they're photographing needs XYZ feature or the camera broken down and isn't worth repairing).

Less than 1% of those buying a still camera of any sort buys a SLR. The 1% of the 1% of SLR buyers buys a double grip pro body like a Canon 1D X or Nikon D4S.

It puts into perspective where/who we are today. Doesn't it?

With this in mind do you find yourself thinking perhaps the next upgrade you will skip all together?

 

[gsgary]

No need for me to upgrade, I shoot film, it much cheaper

 

[waday]

Please not another smartphone vs. camera thread.

With this in mind do you find yourself thinking perhaps the next upgrade you will skip all together?

No.

 

[Derrel]

" The sky is falling! The sky is falling! " ~ Vincent Laforet

Ummmm, yeah. Only one, itty-bitty little problem with Laforet's Henny Penny-like doomsday scenario: he forgot the untold millions and millions of people world-wide who have amateur photography as their all-consuming passion. You know, the millions upon millions of avid amatuer snapshooters, hobby shooters, flower shooters, landscape photographers, portrait shooters, moms with cameras, dads with cameras, enthusiastic teen photographers, travel and photo-happy retirees, nature-loving photographers, soccer moms, soccer dads, stamp collectors, motocross enthusiasts, NASCAR fans, you know...all of THOSE kinds of people for whom photographs are regularly made using "real cameras". And uh....all of those professional cameras and lenses Laforet talks about professionals needing and relying upon? Uhhhh...the R&D and development of those products are subsidized by the SALES made to the group of hundred of millions of non-professionals...you know, the people who BUY the majority of those Nikon D4's and those 200-400 VR's and so on...they are not professionals, but rich amateurs in most cases.

He seems to view the photgraphy world as two basic segments: "professionals" and "smart phone users". The helicopter-sized fly in the ointment that is the central premise of his argument is that he is overlooking a positively HUGE segment of photographic equipment buyers that comprises a really critical part of the entire industry: the dedicated "amateur" or "hobby" photographers who have as a class, propped up the entire photo industry for literally, over one hundred years. His article is written from the point of view of a person seemingly unaware of the amateur photography enthusiast market.

Laforet's article identifies a trend, yes. But it is also the exact type of poorly-conceived crap that belongs in the category of doomsday statements like these:

"Radio will cause the death of the theatre, and will put newspapers out of business within a decade."
"The VHS and BETA tape business will kill Hollywood movie-making, and ruin the movie industry."
"Television will kill the movie business by 1960."

 

[Braineack]

Here's the solution:

Nikon, Canon, and the rest should start offering their DSLRs on HUGE discounts, with some models being free, so long as you sign a two-year contract for some other service you're require to pay large chunks of money each month for.

 

[vintagesnaps]

Over the years the average person using a camera for family and holiday and vacation pictures probably would have gone from an instamatic to a film p&s to a digital p&s to a cell phone (without any slr's along the way).

People used to take pictures with a camera, and use a movie camera/camcorder to make home movies; these days people have been posting videos on YouTube for some time but that doesn't seem to have stopped people from taking selfies with their cells.

There's quite a range from taking pictures w/a cell of what you're having for dinner to post it on FB, to people who use DSLRs and enjoy photography occasionally, to hobbyists and pros and a lot of different uses for photography and video. I don't think one necessarily replaces the other.

 

[photoguy99]

Obviously the trend lines will go down for a while and then settle in to some sort of more or less horizontal line. The only question is where that line is and how many businesses of what general sort can be supported there.

Derrel is right, the customers will certainly include a bunch of enthusiasts. How many? I always take the SLR sales figures from the 1970s as a benchmark. You can argue that it will be 2-3x that number because of the new markets that have come online since then (China, India, etc). You can argue that it will be quite a bit smaller than that number, because.. I dunno, a bunch of reasons are possible here.

But it's gonna level out, and it's gonna include some professionals and some enthusiasts and the latter will almost certainly outnumber the former.

A few million units a year is the obvious guess, and anyone who claims to have one that's more precise is blowin' smoke.

 

[Derrel]

Laforet's essay skips over a huge, important segment of the photo industry's actual customer base, and that omission is a serious flaw in an essay such as the one he wrote. It's one of the dangers of self-publishing stuff that has not been read and reviewed by a third party. This is why editors are employed at all publications that want to be taken seriously.

Laforet paints a picture of an industry which has exactly two types of shooters: professionals at one end, and at the other end are mindless, three-clicks-then-upload-from-phone-to-social-media types ( let's call these people the dirty, unwashed masses). He seems to see nothing in between the professionals and the dirty, unwashed masses. His conclusion is actually pretty much an overreaching doomsday scenario.

 

[Braineack]

Or better yet: the Nikon EDGE plan -- the cost of your new camera is split into 36 equal payments.

get the all new D810 for only $100/mo for 36mos!!!

$0 down for qualified customers.

Plus you'll have to option to upgrade to any new models (since we put out trivila upgrades every two years or so in each model line) for no extra cost. You original Nikon camera must be returned in good working condition and have no significant damage as determined by Nikon EDGE.

 

[Derrel]

Kind of like car leasing plans! Customers get that new car feeling, dealers get a nice down payment plus a two or three year lease income stream, and most often a relatively new and good condition vehicle to SELL as a used car after they have extracted a good deal of blood from the victim...err...the customer.

I disagree with the $0 down for qualified buyers....nope...there's gotta be a down payment to make this scam work.

 

[astroNikon]

Makes me wish I used all the money I spent on Canon & Apple gear went into Apple stock at $7.00/share in 2002.

I had to sell my shares at $9 a share back in the day.
If I kept it each share would be worth roughly $3,628 per share before the splits (2:1, 2:1, 7:1). Multiplied by the number of shares would have been quite a tidy sum.

I got back in it after the recent 7:1 split.

 

[astroNikon]

Or better yet: the Nikon EDGE plan -- the cost of your new camera is split into 36 equal payments.

get the all new D810 for only $100/mo for 36mos!!!

$0 down for qualified customers.

Plus you'll have to option to upgrade to any new models (since we put out trivila upgrades every two years or so in each model line) for no extra cost. You original Nikon camera must be returned in good working condition and have no significant damage as determined by Nikon EDGE.

Keep the money changing hands.
Nice !!

Exactly my thought Derrel .. car leases ...
Of course that can create a new larger market for Refurb's.

 

[astroNikon]

Please not another smartphone vs. camera thread.

With this in mind do you find yourself thinking perhaps the next upgrade you will skip all together?

No.

If you read carefully, It's mirrorless and SLR cameras.
So dSLRs are not included
I didn't know film SLRs sales have dropped since the 1970s ... who woulda thunk ?!

 

[Braineack]

Kind of like car leasing plans! Customers get that new car feeling, dealers get a nice down payment plus a two or three year lease income stream, and most often a relatively new and good condition vehicle to SELL as a used car after they have extracted a good deal of blood from the victim...err...the customer.

I disagree with the $0 down for qualified buyers....nope...there's gotta be a down payment to make this scam work.

Verizon Edge - Verizon Wireless

The coveted Iphone 5s camera ends up at $550.00 PLUS the cost of service/fees/taxes.

A steal.

 

[bribrius]

things change. For the average person wanting good photos maybe they would have picked up a dslr ten years ago. Since then things have progressed. They are getting good photos off their iphone. No need to carry 20 lbs around. For someone to buy dslrs or get into lenses they have to have a reason. The majority dont have enough reason and improving technology may have made that transfer unnecessary. I full espect dslr sales and even mirrorless sales to drop eventually. If what they have is already serving their needs, they have no reason to change.

I keep in mind, some of the hobbyists dump thousands on gear to come up with a decent landscape shot. while a lot of these people are paying much less to nothing for a similiar shot with their improving low end gear constantly coming out. Yeah, maybe to some that expenditure and carrying around equipment is worth it. But for the average person, that landscape photo being ten percent better than the iphone photo or point and shoot really isnt worth the expense or time and lugging of gear.

This will only escalate. As the majority of photos taken by these people on their phones are getting better and better, and very usable. Some are actually quite nice. They aren't blowing them up to wall prints. You will still have some of the hobbyists and pros using dslr gear. But even that will change over time. There are people already dumping dslrs to go to mirrorless. They may dump mirrorless for something else even simpler if tech continues to improve. The dslrs, in the majority of situations, are just becoming less and less necessary and a stupid investment in time and money for most people.

The vast majority of photos i myself shoot i dont need a dslr for. And while not a pro, i consider myself i a pretty serious shooter just in how much shooting i do. There is a lot of CRAP for instance on facebook from the general public. But last i looked (been a while) there are some people turning out better photos with cheap point and shoots or cellphones than many of the hobbyists flaunting 10 or 20k in gear.

Originally i think people with slrs were rather less common. The drop off in sales doesnt reflect the last 20 or 30 years. Because if you really looked back you will find they are probably selling ten time more dslrs now than 20 or 30 years ago. It isn't that sales are so much dying, but that the segment as been flooded for a couple decades or more by hobbyists shooters and everyone and their brother getting into photography. Good times, money to blow, time to kill, and a huge push by camera companies to gain customers. Once they make you a hobbyist in a system you keep coming back to spend more. That is what they want. Much imo a giant phase the camera companies raked in a lot of cash on. As it resets, the hobbyists will drop down, the dslr sales might go closer to what they probably should have been to start with. And a lot will just move on too new technology. Even the pro segment isn't safe. i won't claim pros will just all stop using dslrs. But as things many of them too will be dumping dslrs as they nolonger provide a usefulness that could be acquired from other means at the time. Whatever tool serves the purpose.