Sign of Impending Apocalypse

[bribrius]

......... Good. The less we use our oil the more we have for later. wonderful if they want to deplete their reserves for fifty dollars a barrel. Maybe we can get them all the way down to twenty five dollars a barrel. I don't know much about it either but sounds good to me! Why use our oil when we can use all theirs!

It would get into politics, which is frowned upon here.

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! you can't respond. you want to be you cant. you will get in twubble. lol! Bet it is driving you nuts too. That freedom of speech thrown out soon as you join a forum. Lifes a funny thing... LMAO hahahahaahhahahahahahahahahhahaahahhahaha! Bet you really wish you could say it!

 

[snerd]

Nah, I'm on plenty other political forums where I can vent. Kind of nice to have at least one place to relax in.

 

[bribrius]

Nah, I'm on plenty other political forums where I can vent. Kind of nice to have at least one place to relax in.

oh. this Is the only place I am. no politics. Photography is like all I do now. And watch gas prices in which I really wish we could see under two bucks a gallon here but probably wont happen. I spent years with the end of the worlders./doomers. anarchists so I am twisted enough without adding to it... safer for me here.. taking photos... . LOL

 

[photoguy99]

It's funny how fast we reset what's normal.

$50 light sweet crude is an invention of the last decade, and now it's basically an improbable and crazy lower bound.

The Saudis can pump that crap out of the ground for $10 a barrel until the cows come home.

 

[bribrius]

It's funny how fast we reset what's normal.

$50 light sweet crude is an invention of the last decade, and now it's basically an improbable and crazy lower bound.

The Saudis can pump that crap out of the ground for $10 a barrel until the cows come home.

Peak oil - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
When will oil run out? | Institution of Mechanical Engineers
the question has never been If, but it has always been "when".. while probably not for some time, when dealing with a finite commodity and its depletion and ability for access it gives the world markets excuse to drive up the prices. And on another level it asks the question if we should revamp how we do things now, or rather wait until It is possibly to late and let the later generations deal with the downhill slope of production. which wont be pretty and undeniably lead to catastrophic declines in economies and population sizes as even our food production Is totally reliant on cheap oil..

Personally I am totally happy at fifty dollars a barrel saudi oil and cheap gasoline because it means the undeveloped u.s. supplies will be left for the grandkids....

 

[photoguy99]

I hope my grandkids think we were idiots for burning these useful long hydrocarbon chains for fuel. Energy comes from all over. It is literally falling from the sky. Long hydrocarbon chains, on the other hand.

 

[WesternGuy]

Well, all I can say is let's enjoy it while we can. Who knows when OPEC will decide to turn down the taps. I bought gas for 79¢ a litre last week. That is about less than half of what I paid for it a couple of months ago.

WesternGuy

 

[snerd]

Well, all I can say is let's enjoy it while we can. Who knows when OPEC will decide to turn down the taps. I bought gas for 79¢ a litre last week. That is about less than half of what I paid for it a couple of months ago.

WesternGuy

The word is, that OPEC is irrelevant. They're not players anymore. The Saudi's run the show now.

 

[gsgary]

I'd love to pay $4 a gallon

not sure how it is there. But the u.s. is basically built around the interstate highway system and long commutes for workers, multiple vehicles per household, lots of trucking. I read once that in most other developed countries things are a little more close nit, local, different type of infrastructure and working economy so they utilize transportation a lot less (think they used Europe in their example). So higher prices may not really have the same effect where you live? in the u.s the way our economy, infrastructure is set up going all the way back to the early industrial revolution expansion and suburbias, fuel prices really effect us here. The u.s. was really built around the premise of cheap fuel, and a necessity for cheap fuel. And it isn't like anyone can rip up all the cities, roads, move businesses around or relocate people to mimic some more efficient countries in set up. It just kind of sprawled, developed, interstate highways, long commute for many, all the houses got built. It is about the least efficient you can get but is already there now set up, how it is. so we are heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Just something to think about I could be wrong. I am just going to guess, but I bet there isn't many people that commute fourty minutes to a hour to work around the world in a car. But in the u.s. that is quite common. Just different I would guess.

A bit higher up from Pete if there are road works or land slips blocking roads there can be diversions of over 100 miles because of the lack of roads but the beautiful Scottish countryside makes up for that

 

[kdthomas]

Haven't read the whole thread, but FWIW here in Texas I saw $1.75 ... Pretty soon they'll be paying us to take it

 

[WesternGuy]

Well, all I can say is let's enjoy it while we can. Who knows when OPEC will decide to turn down the taps. I bought gas for 79¢ a litre last week. That is about less than half of what I paid for it a couple of months ago.

WesternGuy

The word is, that OPEC is irrelevant. They're not players anymore. The Saudi's run the show now.

With all due respect, I disagree. The Saudi's are one of the larger components of OPEC, at least the last time I looked. In case you are interested, the founding members of OPEC consist of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. In 2014 OPEC comprised twelve members: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Together, they produce over 30 billion bbls of oil per day, with Saudi Arabia producing just under 1/3rd of that. Gabon and Indonesia were once members, but no longer belong to the organization.

You may be right in some respects that as the biggest producer within OPEC, the Saudis call the shots, but I do believe that if the others were adamant, then things might change. After all, a lot of these countries rely on oil over $100 US/bbl to maintain their standard of living. For example, Iran needs prices at about $139US a bbl just to balance its budget. Nigeria and Venezuela risk complete social and economic chaos at the roughly $60US that oil is selling for today. Venezuela's economy depends solely on the price it can get for its oil and the current levels is not what it had planned for - even at $100US, it could barely keep its economy going. Most of this "pricing issue" resolves around the increase in US oil production and the Saudis resolve to put the "frackers" out of business - fracking is where a lot of this increase in US production is coming from. It has been suggested that OPEC risks falling apart if the Saudis do not begin to listen to their members. Algeria has already called for an increase in the price by shutting down production, yet there has been no action by the Saudis, at least, that is obvious to the rest of the world. One can only speculate what would happen if OPEC falls apart - I don't even want to guess.

I trust this will clarify a few of the aspects of what is going on.

WesternGuy

 

[snerd]

Oh, no offense taken! I know just enough to be dangerous lol!!

I just read so many stories about OPEC fading into irrelevancy, that I don't know what to believe for sure.......

Why Opec is increasingly irrelevant
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f7857324-8534-11e4-bb63-00144feabdc0.html

Economist to truckers: ‘OPEC has become irrelevant’
Economist to truckers: ‘OPEC has become irrelevant’ - Money - Omaha.com: Breaking news and local coverage from the Omaha World-Herald

Why OPEC Could Be Dead in 10 Years
Why OPEC Could Be Dead in 10 Years

Voices: The OPEC Oil Cartel Is Irrelevant
http://www.newsweek.com/voices-opec-oil-cartel-irrelevant-92519

and on and on and on..............




Sent from my iPhone 6+ using Tapatalk Pro

 

[bribrius]

Well, all I can say is let's enjoy it while we can. Who knows when OPEC will decide to turn down the taps. I bought gas for 79¢ a litre last week. That is about less than half of what I paid for it a couple of months ago.

WesternGuy

The word is, that OPEC is irrelevant. They're not players anymore. The Saudi's run the show now.

With all due respect, I disagree. The Saudi's are one of the larger components of OPEC, at least the last time I looked. In case you are interested, the founding members of OPEC consist of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. In 2014 OPEC comprised twelve members: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Together, they produce over 30 billion bbls of oil per day, with Saudi Arabia producing just under 1/3rd of that. Gabon and Indonesia were once members, but no longer belong to the organization.

You may be right in some respects that as the biggest producer within OPEC, the Saudis call the shots, but I do believe that if the others were adamant, then things might change. After all, a lot of these countries rely on oil over $100 US/bbl to maintain their standard of living. For example, Iran needs prices at about $139US a bbl just to balance its budget. Nigeria and Venezuela risk complete social and economic chaos at the roughly $60US that oil is selling for today. Venezuela's economy depends solely on the price it can get for its oil and the current levels is not what it had planned for - even at $100US, it could barely keep its economy going. Most of this "pricing issue" resolves around the increase in US oil production and the Saudis resolve to put the "frackers" out of business - fracking is where a lot of this increase in US production is coming from. It has been suggested that OPEC risks falling apart if the Saudis do not begin to listen to their members. Algeria has already called for an increase in the price by shutting down production, yet there has been no action by the Saudis, at least, that is obvious to the rest of the world. One can only speculate what would happen if OPEC falls apart - I don't even want to guess.

I trust this will clarify a few of the aspects of what is going on.

WesternGuy

where did you get the info on what iran needed for price? i thought they were exporting to china this entire time far beneath that.

 

[WesternGuy]

Well, all I can say is let's enjoy it while we can. Who knows when OPEC will decide to turn down the taps. I bought gas for 79¢ a litre last week. That is about less than half of what I paid for it a couple of months ago.

WesternGuy

The word is, that OPEC is irrelevant. They're not players anymore. The Saudi's run the show now.

With all due respect, I disagree. The Saudi's are one of the larger components of OPEC, at least the last time I looked. In case you are interested, the founding members of OPEC consist of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. In 2014 OPEC comprised twelve members: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Together, they produce over 30 billion bbls of oil per day, with Saudi Arabia producing just under 1/3rd of that. Gabon and Indonesia were once members, but no longer belong to the organization.

You may be right in some respects that as the biggest producer within OPEC, the Saudis call the shots, but I do believe that if the others were adamant, then things might change. After all, a lot of these countries rely on oil over $100 US/bbl to maintain their standard of living. For example, Iran needs prices at about $139US a bbl just to balance its budget. Nigeria and Venezuela risk complete social and economic chaos at the roughly $60US that oil is selling for today. Venezuela's economy depends solely on the price it can get for its oil and the current levels is not what it had planned for - even at $100US, it could barely keep its economy going. Most of this "pricing issue" resolves around the increase in US oil production and the Saudis resolve to put the "frackers" out of business - fracking is where a lot of this increase in US production is coming from. It has been suggested that OPEC risks falling apart if the Saudis do not begin to listen to their members. Algeria has already called for an increase in the price by shutting down production, yet there has been no action by the Saudis, at least, that is obvious to the rest of the world. One can only speculate what would happen if OPEC falls apart - I don't even want to guess.

I trust this will clarify a few of the aspects of what is going on.

WesternGuy

where did you get the info on what iran needed for price? i thought they were exporting to china this entire time far beneath that.

I got the price from three different articles, written by three different authors over the past couple of months in one of our national Business Newspapers. Where they got it from I don't know, but the figure is consistent, even CNN has been throwing this figure out.. Maybe it is a myth - Iran takes steps to reduce economic risk of falling oil prices - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East#. The statement here is that Iran needs prices at $80US a barrel or above to be okay. Regardless, they have to be hurting at $60US. It doesn't really matter who Iran sells to. What matters is how much they get for it and how much their "economy" depends on what they get for it. You might want to check out this one on who wins and who loses. Almost invariably, it is the producing nations that lose and the major consuming nations that win. Eight countries that win and lose big from oil plunge

I am not sure what price China is paying for Iran's crude, but regardless, I suspect that the Chinese can almost dictate what they will pay for it in today's market.

I hope this helps a bit.

WesternGuy

 

[bribrius]

Well, all I can say is let's enjoy it while we can. Who knows when OPEC will decide to turn down the taps. I bought gas for 79¢ a litre last week. That is about less than half of what I paid for it a couple of months ago.

WesternGuy

The word is, that OPEC is irrelevant. They're not players anymore. The Saudi's run the show now.

With all due respect, I disagree. The Saudi's are one of the larger components of OPEC, at least the last time I looked. In case you are interested, the founding members of OPEC consist of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. In 2014 OPEC comprised twelve members: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Together, they produce over 30 billion bbls of oil per day, with Saudi Arabia producing just under 1/3rd of that. Gabon and Indonesia were once members, but no longer belong to the organization.

You may be right in some respects that as the biggest producer within OPEC, the Saudis call the shots, but I do believe that if the others were adamant, then things might change. After all, a lot of these countries rely on oil over $100 US/bbl to maintain their standard of living. For example, Iran needs prices at about $139US a bbl just to balance its budget. Nigeria and Venezuela risk complete social and economic chaos at the roughly $60US that oil is selling for today. Venezuela's economy depends solely on the price it can get for its oil and the current levels is not what it had planned for - even at $100US, it could barely keep its economy going. Most of this "pricing issue" resolves around the increase in US oil production and the Saudis resolve to put the "frackers" out of business - fracking is where a lot of this increase in US production is coming from. It has been suggested that OPEC risks falling apart if the Saudis do not begin to listen to their members. Algeria has already called for an increase in the price by shutting down production, yet there has been no action by the Saudis, at least, that is obvious to the rest of the world. One can only speculate what would happen if OPEC falls apart - I don't even want to guess.

I trust this will clarify a few of the aspects of what is going on.

WesternGuy

where did you get the info on what iran needed for price? i thought they were exporting to china this entire time far beneath that.

I got the price from three different articles, written by three different authors over the past couple of months in one of our national Business Newspapers. Where they got it from I don't know, but the figure is consistent, even CNN has been throwing this figure out.. Maybe it is a myth - Iran takes steps to reduce economic risk of falling oil prices - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East#. The statement here is that Iran needs prices at $80US a barrel or above to be okay. Regardless, they have to be hurting at $60US. It doesn't really matter who Iran sells to. What matters is how much they get for it and how much their "economy" depends on what they get for it. You might want to check out this one on who wins and who loses. Almost invariably, it is the producing nations that lose and the major consuming nations that win. Eight countries that win and lose big from oil plunge

I am not sure what price China is paying for Iran's crude, but regardless, I suspect that the Chinese can almost dictate what they will pay for it in today's market.

I hope this helps a bit.

WesternGuy

it does. thankyou..

i am still a little at a loss on the big deal over fracking. if the world uses 90 million barrels a day (could be 87 -93 guessing here) and the u.s pumps another four million per day extra is the prices really that elastic on this? As oil drops in price the u.s. fracking industry say loses most of that twenty percent hard oil recovery. so they are now only producing 4.2 extra million barrels per day. Like that is a big difference from 5 million???? There was a bigger change in the oil supply and demand during the recessions than 5 or 4.2 million barrels a day. Now while the u.s. ramps up this fracking for our peanuts few million barrels a day at the same time we have other wells running dry or becoming less easy or non recoverable. So while the u.s. is putting 5 a day on the market the worlds proven reserves and output outside and inside of the u.s. is still dwindling. so lets keep in mind that while fracking puts oil on the market other supplies are becoming unrecoverable and coming off the market. while the u.s. fracks world oil supply can drop and world demand increase. Adding barrels to the market only has a temporary fluctuation in prices. In balance off and goes up again as other barrels are pulled from the market or simpley cant be recovered at current price levels...

Lets say the are able to maintain a level of output from u.s. fracking (not hit but maintain) of 12 million a day or so which they can just not sure on if they can maintain. The estimate for recovery to start dwindling was only ten years to start with. Given them the benefit of the doubt as some said twenty years now we can use that figure. At 12 million a day it wont be on target to make it the twenty years. The twenty years (and even the ten for that matter ) also includes the "hard" oil being recoverable. Not just hard but the more they dig, the harder it gets to recover. so toward the last five years of that twenty year mark they could be into nothing but inflation adjusted 200 dollar plus oil. They produce more quicker, they hit more and more harder oil and less recoverable at higher price point needed, quicker.. The iea puts fracking on a 2030 timeline. Basically in 2030 she starts to dry up and production starts dwindling. That is only fifteen years away.
I actually wouldnt be surprised to see this little fracking boom all dried up and gone and the trucks moved on in fifteen years or less as the iea is also assuming rising prices to make up for getting the harder and harder oil. So not even fifteen years.. Other thing about harder oil is it lowers per day production. so while easy oil is pumped at let say they max at 18 million barrels a day. When left with harder oil the rate drops significantly hypothetically 4 million barrels a day. It isnt just the amount of oil, the pricepoint, the length of supply BUT also the rate at which it can be recovered that matters. Recovery a million barrels a day at a four hundred dollar price point in a world that uses a hundred milion barrels a day all cheaper than yours isnt going to sell on price or in keeping up with demand.

The lower prices are good here though. At higher prices and lower world supply they would ramp up fracking production even more. The higher the price the amount they produce the quicker the easy recovery runs out AND the quicker the hard oil runs out. There are a lot of claims i read about shale YEARS ago with just insane numbers for expected reserves but the reality is the vast majority of oil will never be recovered including out of shale. The energy taken in recovery, needed pricepoint, just wont be there. you know we would be bankrupt and starving first. so we just have to go by what is actually RECOVERABLE at x dollars and in that fracking really isnt much for saudi to worry about far as oil. u.s. is more a natural gas play last i knew.

i like the fracking threat to control world oil prices i guess? But actually doing it seems really stupid as we need that for later leverage and cant pee it away in fifteen or twenty years or less? problem with the u.s. is we already exhausted and exploited most of our oil reserves in its hay day. And we tend to think for the moment and making a buck but not so much in long term? we could pee away the little we have left really easy? where as the middle east and other parts of the world are just tapping theirs now? ((well except saudi arabia who really knows what they got left they been pumping so much for so long). The oil producing countries (god love them for supplying my v8 and having those rich princes to pay for) do revolve their economy from their chief export, oil. which i am sure they dont like the drop in prices but also consider they also should be pulling some off the market. i think saudi was pumping water in the wells ten years back to push out the oil so that pretty much tells you how easy theirs probably is to recovery now.. some countries like iran, iraq, libya still probably have plenty of reserves, and many not even known of yet as the technology and stability havent been in them long enough to actually map it up and ramp it up to refining at larger production capacity. Dont know what russia has probably quite a bit.

Point is here that the u.s. has pretty much the LEAST and what we are recovering now we are using the highest available technology for and it still costs. What the u.s. is claiming for reserves here is ROCK. with POTENTIAL for recovery. vastly different than a nice fresh well in some country where it spews out of the ground like in the movies. It is SHALE. But back on target here i originally stated i would rather use saudi oil at fifty dollars a barrel and this long, long post explains to a extent as to why. Quick study i just read a couple articles. Apparently the break even point on hard oil is somewhere in the sixty to seventy five dollar range so they claim i think someone is lying but okay.... so they wont be extracting that with these prices. The easier oil they can make money on from fourty dollars a barrel i guess. so there is no reason for these prices to not stay for the time being unless saudi does cut production. In less than fifteen years though plan on spending two hundred a barrel and seven bucks a gallon in the u.s. (not inflation adjusted) as by then much of saudi will be off line and not much left here either recoverable at a fast enough rate in barrels per day. Hopefully not though maybe there will be some initiative in some of these less developed countries to put more on tap and modernize. and they wont have sanctions on them so can bring it to market.

least..... i think ...