The Megapixel Race.......Nikon's next step?

[Derrel]

Well, I disagree, IMHO the current trend in photography is getting bigger in sensor size.

If one looks at the total number of digital cameras, there is a veritable tidal wave of small-sensor imaging devices from 90% of the manufacturers. And then, there is a small bucket that holds the very few cameras that have 24x36mm or larger imaging sensors. Medium format digital sells something like fewer than 10,000 units per year world-wide, from what I've heard. So, to me, the idea of a trend means that the 90% majority is the trend, and the bigger sensor products are not "a trend", but merely outlying outposts along the fringes of the territory. The highest volume selling imaging devices are smartphones, which have very TINY sensors.

 

[Braineack]

if you took the phone, internet, app, and SMS abilities away from those cameras (as well as offering them for free when you pay for these services), would people still buy them?

 

[Derrel]

if you took the phone, internet, app, and SMS abilities away from those cameras (as well as offering them for free when you pay for these services), would people still buy them?

Good question. Reminds me of the old Saturday Night Live sketch, "What If?" My favorite was the episode where they examined the question (gramatically incorrect, BTW) "What if Julius Caesar had a Piper Cub?"

Smart phones are small, light, rugged, and super easily pocketed, or carried in purses or on belt holsters. My iPhone would have to be one of the thinnest, most compact, and most easily carried still AND HD video cameras I have ever,ever had. Smart phones shoot huge numbers of images on their built-in memory, and have high-quality display systems that serve as both viewfinder and playback device. All in all, the typical iPhone/Android smart phone of today is a high quality camera and video camera. But we can't go back and What If? out of existence the data plans, web connectivity, and instant world-wide transmission of images and text and video that smart phones have. My guess though is that a good smart phone would still be a popular camera and video camera and self-contained storage and display device that would outsell almost any camera that has ever been made.

According to Thom Hogan, internet connectivity is one of the critical features that regular cameras are seriously lacking in. The ability to instantly transmit and share images from the smart phone is what is making using a smart phone camera such a popular alternative to using a regular camera. Also, the phone cameras are EASY to use, not confusing or threatening to technically challenged people.

 

[pixmedic]

problem is though....
your phone always (usually) has an internet connection even when your not on a wifi hotspot, so you always (usually) have a camera with its own dedicated internet access.
cameras though...even ones with wifi (our little samsung P&S has wifi) only have that connection when you are near a wifi signal.

maybe what they need is a DSLR with an option to have access to 3g/4g/LTE phone connections.

 

[unpopular]

If one looks at the total number of digital cameras

Absolutely. There is no doubt that there will be a consumer market for high performing small format sensors.

What impact does that have on other markets? While sensors have gotten smaller from 1" sensors of analog television to 1/8" sensors of cell phone cameras, larger format DSLR cameras have been getting less expensive with higher demand. The Pentax 645D and the rumored Sony and Mamiya digital mirrorless systems are examples of how, indeed, sensor size still matters to people who are interested in photography rather than snapshots. If true, the Sony medium format rumor is especially interesting since their market is not currently professional photographers.

Take a look at the Nikon 1. A big reason I was not interested in it was due to it's sub 4/3 sensor. Of course, there are advantages to small sensors, but going too small likewise is limiting.

There is a push in both directions depending on the market you're talking about, but those two markets are so unique from one another, you can't really say "well, look at cell phones!" when you're talking about DSLRs and Mirrorless.

 

[Derrel]

There is no doubt that there will be a consumer market for high performing small format sensors.

What impact does that have on other markets?

Uhhhhh....the consumer market for small, point and shoot type digital cameras, and for digital "bridge" camera, has almost DIED since smart phones replaced those products world-wide. Digital camera sales dropped seriously in 2012, and precipitiously in 2013, and also very steeply again in 2014. The market for digital cameras peaked in 2010. After that, it's been allllllllllll downhill for the camera makers. The market for cameras has constricted, seriously.

This Chart Shows How the Camera Market Has Changed Over the Past Decades

 

[Solarflare]

The highest volume selling imaging devices are smartphones, which have very TINY sensors.

Okay.

I simply dont care about smartphones. Or notebooks. Or whatever other non-camera also has an image taking option.

Heck, I dont even care for whattheyarecalledagain webcams.

Oh and also not for security cameras.

 

[gsgary]

Give me mega grain any day

 

[unpopular]

There is no doubt that there will be a consumer market for high performing small format sensors.

What impact does that have on other markets?

Uhhhhh....the consumer market for small, point and shoot type digital cameras, and for digital "bridge" camera, has almost DIED since smart phones replaced those products world-wide. Digital camera sales dropped seriously in 2012, and precipitiously in 2013, and also very steeply again in 2014. The market for digital cameras peaked in 2010. After that, it's been allllllllllll downhill for the camera makers. The market for cameras has constricted, seriously.

This Chart Shows How the Camera Market Has Changed Over the Past Decades

Unless you are suggesting that Nikon is going to market a pro-photographer smart phone with an 1/8" sensor, we're talking about different things - and different futures.

It doesn't matter what platform you put an 1/8" sensor into, or that the camera phone has eaten into the P/S market, the consumer market and professional markets are unique - and always have been.

It's like saying that because Kodak sold a butt-load of Brownies and Ponys, widespread use of SLRs by professional photographers shouldn't happen.

Trends at the lowest end have limited impact on the highest; and if anything, trends on the high end impact expectations on the lower end.

 

[Derrel]

It's weird how people say that a handful of full-frame cameras from Nikon, and less than a handful of models from Canon and Sony make up a "trend" toward larger image sensors, when 95% of the cameras on the market have SMALLER SENSORS than FX. Jesus...look up the word trend, learn what it means. The "trend" in imaging is small sensors. Simple. Obvious. Fact.

A few outliers are NOT a "trend"...the "trend" is the whole "herd" so to speak...not a few peripheral individuals that are outside the group.

 

[photoguy99]

But Derrel, what I want is a camera that records only green wavelengths.

Nikon is missing out by not building this thing and jumping on the greentography trend!

 

[Derrel]

But Derrel, what I want is a camera that records only green wavelengths.

Nikon is missing out by not building this thing and jumping on the greentography trend!

Hey....I've actuallly heard about going green being good for my household, and my community, and indeed the entire planet! Nikon oughtta' get with the going green program!

 

[unpopular]

ARGH! TWO DIFFERENT MARKETS!!!!

What part of this don't you friggin' understand?

 

[pixmedic]

if you really want to talk "trend"...
the "trend" has been going with smaller sensors for years.
there have been a few advances in medium format sensors, but far more has been invested by companies in sensors smaller than the 35mm format. Even discounting cellphone cameras, the overall trend for well over a decade has been smaller than 36x24 sensors.
the two best examples of this are, of course, APS-C sensors, which have dominated DSLR sales since the beginning, and more recently, but no less impressive sales wise, the m4/3 format cameras. Even Nikon got in on their own small sensor with the Nikon 1, which is smaller than m4/3 sensors.
I would call those a "trend".

 

[Dave442]

Interesting chart by Hilbig. I think I followed that change to digital and from compact to DSL, though still do not have a mirrorless. Now if I use that historical data to predict a trend I don't think I can. The drop-off does show a market shift, but to what it does not say.
All I know is that I don't see anyone in our family buying another compact camera, those died back with our initial move to the iPhone 5 and some other smart phones. Now my grandson loves to use my old Sony 5mp compact camera, but charging batteries every few hours and downloading all the pictures for him makes me want to just give him a smartphone and have all those pictures be automatically uploaded directly to Flickr (and wherever else he wants to send them) like the rest of the family (he just wants to be like me - charging batteries and downloading from memory cards all the time).