The Monty Hall Game Show

Discussion in 'Off Topic Chat' started by 'Daniel', Feb 16, 2006.

  1. 'Daniel'

    'Daniel' TPF Noob!

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    If you have seen this before then please dont give the answer up. Only if you work it out.



    You are a contestant on the Monty Hall game show. Three closed doors are shown before you. Behind one of these doors is a car; behind the other two are goats. The contestant does not know where the car is, but Monty Hall does.
    The contestant picks a door and Monty opens one of the remaining doors, one he knows doesn't hide the car. If the contestant has already chosen the correct door, Monty is equally likely to open either of the two remaining doors.
    After Monty has shown a goat behind the door that he opens, the contestant is always given the option to switch doors.




    Is the contestant better sticking to the original door or switching? Answer only accepted if probabilities given as you could just guess.
     
  2. 'Daniel'

    'Daniel' TPF Noob!

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    bump
     
  3. kelox

    kelox TPF Noob!

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    stick with original choice(my guess)
     
  4. Chiller

    Chiller Mental case

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    :scratch: :confused:
     
  5. Alexandra

    Alexandra TPF Noob!

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    Monty hall would open a door hiding a goat either way... so i think there are equal probabilities the player has choosen the right or wrong door. so basically sticking with the first door or switching would make no difference in terms of a reasonnable choice...
     
  6. kelox

    kelox TPF Noob!

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    Ok, you've swayed me. I'll say choose the other door.
     
  7. JTHphoto

    JTHphoto TPF Noob!

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    you have a 1 in 3 chance of being right on your first guess, if he reveals a goat behind one of the doors, you can effectively start over with a 1 in 2 chance. if you stay with your original choice you are bound by your original odds of .333333333 - if you switch, your odds improve to .5 so i would say switch. am i on the right track?
     
  8. kelox

    kelox TPF Noob!

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    OK, I'll stick with my first choice.
     
  9. JTHphoto

    JTHphoto TPF Noob!

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    it was driving me crazy so i had to look it up, i was on the right track but my statistics skills are a little rusty...
     
  10. kelox

    kelox TPF Noob!

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    No, you're right, I'll say pick the second door.
     
  11. mentos_007

    mentos_007 The Freshmaker!

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    well I hated probability at school...
     
  12. markc

    markc TPF Noob!

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    Okay, Mr. FunSquisher again...

    I've seen this around, but the logic doesn't work. When there are three doors, you have one in three chance in getting it. When there are two doors, your odds are one in two. It doesn't matter when you picked it. The outcome is still unknown, so you still have a 50/50 chance no matter which of the two remaining doors you pick.
     

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