Where will Pentax be in Two Years?

[benjikan]

In the past few months there have been some rather exciting developments. The technology is moving at an incredibly fast pace. Where will we be in two years and what will be the standard resolution for the masses using DSLR's. What will be at the forefront and who will be setting new precedents.

Here is my prediction. The standard base level Pentax will be 12 mega pixels. It will have a range of 100 to 3200 iso and will have built in SR, sensor cleaning and image view as well as other novel features like high speed bluetooth and infra red tether support. The next step up will be the equivalent of the K10D and will have a native resolution of 12.8 mega pixels on a 1.25 ratio sensor. It will have a range of 50-6400 iso and will feature a new highly evolved SR system that will allow for a true 4 stops of shake reduction as well as Pan SR. It will also have an improved sensor cleaning system as well as high speed Bluetooth capability and infra red tether support. It will shoot at 6 fps and be able to shoot a full 2 gig card without needing to re-buffer. It will allow up to 30 Raw images to be shot in rapid fire.

Pentax will not yet have released their FF sensor dslr, but rumors will abound about the eventual release of their 22 megapixel FF DSLR.

The new 645D will have evolved to the 645D Mkll with a 45 megapixel sensor.

That is my take. Now that it is written in concrete let's see how close I am to this prediction in two years..

Ben

 

[Riggaberto]

Which is why I'm not even close to ready to go digital yet. 1-2 years sounds good. Thats when the sensors will really be worth it.

 

[usayit]

Much of what you say probably won't be specific to Pentax but to many of the players in the DSLR market...

Pentax, Olympus, Sony, Canon, Nikon.

What I believe will set Pentax apart is the relatively more affordable MF digital 645. thats were I want to be... but only if it already supports my old 645 lenses.

 

[Mike_E]

The next big wave of DSLRs won't hit the beach until the sales of the current generation start to significantly slow down. Every thing we're seeing now is just refinement of the current tech. mike

 

[Don Simon]

All sounds very possible to me. I agree Pentax won't have a full-frame camera by that time, but then I don't know if anyone else (besides obviously Canon) will either. Nikon might have taken notice of the many users who think FF is the way forward. Sony's supporters often suggest they have the money to do it but I'm not convinced they have the inclination. With Olympus using their own system I couldn't even guess where they'll be. But basically I think if full-frame 35x24mm sensors are going to become the standard at consumer-level it won't be for a few years yet. Apart from anything else I expect the users who have invested in lenses designed for smaller sensors will want to get some mileage out of them yet.
Also if Nikon, Pentax or other companies do start using sensors of around 1.25x 'crop factor' (presumably something like Canon's 1.3x one), I hope there won't be any lenses designed specifically for that sensor size and they'll stick to 'full-frame' lenses.

usayit I'm also very interested in the 645D system; as you say it does set Pentax apart from the other companies producing small-format SLR systems... but I hope they can find a market for it (besides us ). The lenses must be compatible... currently you can take any Pentax lens for any format and use it on one of their dSLRs so it would be absolute madness not to have compatibility between the 645 and 645D.

 

[usayit]

I sure hope the Pentax 645D will find a market... I bet they will. The only way to increase the amount of "data' collected on a CCD or CMOS sensor is by making it denser.. at some point you hit deminishing returns and this is where a larger sensor becomes necessary. The same advantages of film MF to 35mm can then be applied to digital sensors. If Hasselblad can make money of a Digital MF camera, I bet Pentax can. My only wish is that they went the route of a digital back so my current 645 can be adapted... I would be able to carry 1 body two backs for both digital and 120 negative.

Think landscape photography....

Think studio/wedding photography for the small guys that can't afford $25k for a Hasselblad with digital back....

Thats my gut feeling and guess....

Those shooting with a FF or APS sized digital sensor complaining about a nice wide angle.... If they are serious enough about wide angle then an affordable MF camera is the next logical step.