What's Behind the Camera Market Collapse

[Derrel]

Keep your stick on the ice... you should probably translate that from Canuck to English... your attempt at an an insult is kind of vague... those of us who don't live in the Frozen North have likely not heard it before.

 

[star camera company]

The only collapse I’m genuinly worried about is the possibility my shelf with about 20 film cameras may fall off the wall.

 

[TWX]

The only collapse I’m genuinly worried about is the possibility my shelf with about 20 film cameras may fall off the wall.

For some reason I'm reminded of a TV interview Willie Nelson did with one of the late-night shows. They were talking about the relative dangers of various drugs, and Willie was quick to point out that marijuana had its dangers too. The host looked at him quizzically and he continued, a bale fell on a friend of his, crushed him.

 

[VidThreeNorth]

With the Canon results for 2019 available, I thought I'd look at the CIPA reports. They are only available for 11 months (up to November 2019), but what I see is encouraging. Keeping in mind the criticism I have posted in the past, and that this year's numbers will be affected by the Olympics in Japan, at least for the oriental sales numbers, overall, it looks like the drop in the industry is bottoming out. When the December numbers come out, the trends might reverse.

Digital Camera Shipments Worldwide
"http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/dw-201911_e.pdf"

Interchangeable Lens Shipments Worldwide
"http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/sw-201911_e.pdf"

 

[TWX]

With the Canon results for 2019 available, I thought I'd look at the CIPA reports. They are only available for 11 months (up to November 2019), but what I see is encouraging. Keeping in mind the criticism I have posted in the past, and that this year's numbers will be affected by the Olympics in Japan, at least for the oriental sales numbers, overall, it looks like the drop in the industry is bottoming out. When the December numbers come out, the trends might reverse.

Digital Camera Shipments Worldwide
"http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/dw-201911_e.pdf"

Interchangeable Lens Shipments Worldwide
"http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/sw-201911_e.pdf"

Perhaps. On the other hand if we're headed for recession as the treasury-curve inversion may indicate, that could pretty significantly impact a market where a lot of the sales are essentially optional. Professionals that have a need to buy would probably still buy even during a recession, but the prosumer and consumer market might be hit pretty hard if people have economic uncertainty to curtail what essentially amounts to hobbyist expenses.

Granted, an American recession's worst effects will probably be domestic, but American recessions have this habit of spilling out into the wider world, and the American market is large enough to have a dip in it really hurt.

 

[VidThreeNorth]

. . .

Perhaps. On the other hand if we're headed for recession as the treasury-curve inversion may indicate, that could pretty significantly impact a market where a lot of the sales are essentially optional. Professionals that have a need to buy would probably still buy even during a recession, but the prosumer and consumer market might be hit pretty hard if people have economic uncertainty to curtail what essentially amounts to hobbyist expenses.

Granted, an American recession's worst effects will probably be domestic, but American recessions have this habit of spilling out into the wider world, and the American market is large enough to have a dip in it really hurt.

Your note of the possible American recession made me think of other macro economic issues and the biggest unforeseen issue is the Wuhan virus. It's impact on China directly and by influence, the rest of the world is going to be very big. You are probably tired of me mentioning the Japan Olympics, but Japan was expect a substantial boost in tourism from Chinese visitors. I don't think that it's going to happen. I think this virus outbreak will not be over in time. So Japan is going to have to attract "replacement" tourists from the West, and that is going to be difficult. I think we in the West are more likely to attend the Olympics when they are set in the West. Some people in the West would like to combine the Olympics with a visit to a very exotic holiday setting, but I think mainly people who want to see a sporting event probably tend to prefer sticking with the event.

Moreover, companies might have to shut down temporarily if workers cannot make it to work. I don' t know how much of that will happen, but it cannot be good for their country. The economic impact of all this to the rest of us could be felt for the first half of the year.

 

[Soocom1]

meh... I have everything I need for Captain Trips.

 

[TWX]

. . .

Perhaps. On the other hand if we're headed for recession as the treasury-curve inversion may indicate, that could pretty significantly impact a market where a lot of the sales are essentially optional. Professionals that have a need to buy would probably still buy even during a recession, but the prosumer and consumer market might be hit pretty hard if people have economic uncertainty to curtail what essentially amounts to hobbyist expenses.

Granted, an American recession's worst effects will probably be domestic, but American recessions have this habit of spilling out into the wider world, and the American market is large enough to have a dip in it really hurt.

Your note of the possible American recession made me think of other macro economic issues and the biggest unforeseen issue is the Wuhan virus. It's impact on China directly and by influence, the rest of the world is going to be very big. You are probably tired of me mentioning the Japan Olympics, but Japan was expect a substantial boost in tourism from Chinese visitors. I don't think that it's going to happen. I think this virus outbreak will not be over in time. So Japan is going to have to attract "replacement" tourists from the West, and that is going to be difficult. I think we in the West are more likely to attend the Olympics when they are set in the West. Some people in the West would like to combine the Olympics with a visit to a very exotic holiday setting, but I think mainly people who want to see a sporting event probably tend to prefer sticking with the event.

Moreover, companies might have to shut down temporarily if workers cannot make it to work. I don' t know how much of that will happen, but it cannot be good for their country. The economic impact of all this to the rest of us could be felt for the first half of the year.

Japan sits at this weird East-meets-West confluence though, it was strongly affected by Western culture in the leadup to WWII, arguably motivating its position entering the war, and after WWII its occupation led to a lot more Western exposure, and it has in-turn influenced Western culture through technology and creative content. Japan is likely the Asian country that most Westerners would be comfortable visiting, if only because Japan has the least likely chance of significant consequences from cultural misunderstanding.

I would myself like to visit Japan some day and while I normally don't much care for sports, some Olympic events are more interesting than professional sports. I was also acquainted with an Olympian while in high school that went on to win Gold in 2000, so knowing someone that managed to be the best in the world was pretty cool. Unfortunately my daughter is far too young to easily make that sort of trip, so I very much doubt that we could go at any price, however unexpectedly discounted.

 

[VidThreeNorth]

I am updating my previous note regarding the CIPA reports for November 2019. The December report covers the whole 2019 calendar year, and the last month continues the trends of the previous 11.

While one can look at the results and say that this is the worst year of the three shown, the graphs show the bottoming out of the market for digital interchangeable lens cameras and lenses. The only category which might still be on a downward trend is the "fixed lens" still camera, and the drop in that category seems to have slowed. Unfortunately, the early part of this year might be impacted by global economic problems, such as the effects of the Wuhan corona virus, but overall, it seems like the digital interchangeable lens camera market is heading in a good direction.


2019 Digital Camera Shipments Worldwide
"http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/dw-201912_e.pdf"

2019 Interchangeable Lens Shipments Worldwide
"http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/sw-201912_e.pdf"