FujiFILM GFX is going after Full Frame & smaller camera users

[dolina]

In future I would not be surprised that FujiFILM GFX medium format bodies will hit these price points occupied by full frame bodies

$4k

- 2016 Canon EOS-1D X Mark II
- 2021 Fujifilm GFX 50S II ($3.5k summer promo price)

$3.9k

- 2020 Canon EOS R5

$3.7k

- 2019 Panasonic Lumix DC-S1R

$3.5k

- 2019 Panasonic Lumix DC-S1H
- 2020 Sony a7S III

$3k

- 2020 Nikon Z7 II
- 2021 Sony a7R IVA

$2.5k

- 2019 Panasonic Lumix DC-S1
- 2020 Canon EOS R6
- 2021 Sony a7 IV
- 2022 Fujifilm X-H2S (Highest-end X-mount body & may serve as the bottom price for GFX bodies)

$1.5k

- 2015 Canon EOS 5DS R (Cheapest 50+ megapixel body was $3.9k in 2015)

Going after Phase One, Hassleblad & Leica medium format customers are secondary concern as the core medium format market is roughly 6000 units per year – worldwide, for all pre-2013 brands. It's that small because typical medium format bodies goes for more than $10k & lenses more than $3.3k

To frame the FujiFILM G system we need to look at the other players...

Leica S medium format system started in 2008.

- $20k for the single 2020 Leica S3 body
- $5k-12.5k price range for 16 lenses with the last lens, Leica Summicron-S 100 mm f/2 ASPH being released in 2014

FujiFILM G system started in 2017 & has these price points

- $3.5-10k for 3 body SKUs with the last body, Fujifilm GFX 50S II being released 53 weeks ago
- $1k-3.3k price range for 15 lenses with the last two lenses, being released later this year

FujiFILM G medium format systems value proposition is as follows

- medium format hardware
- in a dSLR form factor
- at a dSLR physical dimension & weight
- R3 & R5 price points
- RF L lens price range

This is more damaging to current Canon, Sony & Nikon customers than those of Leica, Hassleblad or any other medium format brand.

An indicator of this would be FujiFILMs marketing tagline is More than Full Frame. If you're a medium format user prior to 2017 the tagline is something to shrug over. But if you're a long time full frame or smaller user then its a big deal.

APS-C & smaller image sensors are losing ground to smartphones so brands are moving to full frame.

Pentax failed in their executions probably due to resource reasons as they did not go further beyond the 2014 Pentax 645Z & 2015 HD Pentax-D FA645 35mm F3.5 AL [IF]. Ive read an article that they had problems fulfilling demand for the $8.5k body that now retails at $5k. I remember feeling surprised by it being the cheapest medium format body at the time.

New lowest price is $3.5k 2021 FujiFILM GFX 50S II body-only during the summer promo price.

The $10k 2019 Fujifilm GFX 100 is the oldest SKU with its successor, the 2021 Fujifilm GFX 100S costing $6k. It has the same 100+ megapixel 0.79x crop image sensor.

Many are complaining about Canon defending its RF system from 3rd party reverse engineering 4 years into their transition.

If I was making that transition to MILC then FujiFILM looks very interesting from a value proposition.

Its weakness for my use case would be its lack of autofocus designed for birds, wildlife or sports.

In 2015 the cheapest way to get native 50+ megapixel was the $3.9k EOS 5Ds R. That was a big deal to many professionals whose clients contractually require 50+ megapixel files.

 

[Soocom1]

The singular problem with the execution of modern mirrorless is that the companies making them (Fuji) and rebranding them (Hasselblad) are not overly attractive, nor within the range of many shooters.

If Canon and Nikon were serious about picking up the pace again, a couple of mirrorless MF bodies would (if properly advertised) be something to pump up their sales volumes.

Fuji USA is making the mistake of rebranding MF to Large Format (yes there was an add out) and making the market a fools parade.

The reason APS even exists was the highly aggressive ad campaign that Canon, Minolta, Kodak and Fuji had in the mid 1990's.

And I do mean AGGRESSIVE!!




MF cameras have certain advantages but because of the move by high-end sellers especially in the US trying to make it a 'prestige" thing, Med. Format has suffered.

 

[dolina]

Fuji MF is not after Phase One, Hassleblad and Leica users who are looking for leaf shutters.

Fuji MF is essentially a MILC with a 0.79x MF crop image sensor. $4k, $6k price points of bodies and $1k-3.3k price bracket of lenses are reflective of attracting Canon/Sony/Nikon FF users. Physical weight & dimensions are of a FF dSLR.

By then Fuji MF will have a userbase of mostly former Canon/Sony/Nikon FF users

The lack of a leaf shutter would be addressed when a global shutter will become available.

When that occurs then Phase One, Hassleblad and Leica users would look at Fuji as a cost effective upgrade away from these 3 brands

 

[Soocom1]

There is one other point however:

Mamiya (MAC Group USA) created much of this issue in the late 1990's and Hasselblad went full frontal when they locked out the market from third party lenses.

Sorry, but when you have specific proprietary lenses costing several thousand more than the camera, your getting stuck in the Kit Lens syndrome.

it would behoove Fuji to allow TP lenses to be made for such a system and eventually move up to a near- to full frame senor.

 

[dolina]

Sales of

- >$10k medium format cameras from Phase One, Hassleblad, Leica, etc
- $6-7k double grip full frame flagship cameras like the Canon 1-Series & 3-Series and Nikon D6 & Z9
- $3-4k single grip full frame professional cameras like Canon 5-Series
- $2.5k prosumer full frame bodies like the Canon 6-Series

And other cameras with APS-C and larger image sensors ~$1k or more are largely unscathed by iPhones and Androids.

Below are CIPA's annual worldwide global shipment # of all digital still cameras.

I am displaying key years

- 1999 & 2000: 1st time they released global shipping # for all digital still cameras. In terms of units shipped they reflect 2021 actual shipments and 2022 forecasted shipments
- 2003: 1st time they broke down # of how many Total SLR vs point & shoots
- 2021 & 2022: Last two years with even more break downs of SLR vs point & shoots vs Mirorless

​

Year	1999 Kodak DC20	2000	2003 Canon EOS 10D	2021	2022 forecast
Total Cameras	5,088,207	10,342,084	43,407,956	8,361,521	7,850,000
Point & Shoot	-	-	42,562,628	3,013,250	2,560,000
Total SLR & Mirrorless	-	-	845,328	5,348,271	5,290,000
SLR	-	-	845,328	2,241,772	-
Mirrorless	-	-	-	3,106,499	-
% of Point & Shoots	-	-	98.05%	36.04%	32.61%
% of SLR & Mirrorless	-	-	1.95%	63.96%	67.39%
Worldwide population	6.034 billion	6.114 billion	6.194 billion	7.9 billion	8 billion
% of worldwide population relative to cameras shipped that year	0.0843%	0.1692%	0.7008%	0.1058%	0.0981%

In terms of units shipped we are between year 1999 & 2000 but in terms of value of units shipped it is mostly SLR & Mirrorless bodies.

As Canon & Nikon are transitioning out of dSLRs then the future should be based on mirrorless bodies selling for ~$1k or more.