These are pretty darn good in extremely tough lighting conditions. Life would be much easier if we could have an assistant with us holding up a diffusor . I have been studying /practicing HSS flash photography the last couple of days in anticipation of shots like these.
What I don't understand is why you would have trouble obtaining the fast shutter speeds in light like this? Look at your DOF range on the lens, you may not need to go so small on aperture. Something seems off though, you should have no trouble getting 1000s + at 200 ISO... Of course I am basing off what I see as I wasn't there. I would more than likely be in the minus EC, spot metering, AE-L for shots like this, remember that the camera is stupid. Matrix and Center will screw this scene up the majority of the time with all the reflection. Maybe
@Derrel will chime in or someone else as I no longer shoot Nikon.
Look at your file in the camera, turn on the preview focus point feature, it looks like it focused to the left and not the flying bee. I had a (lemon) D7200 and all my shots showed the focus point where it should have been but everything was sharp to left looking at the image. It drove me insane... not saying yours is doing it but you could rule it out on a brick wall or focus target.
I would encourage you to play around with spot metering, AE-L, Aperture priority (not manual), out in your back yard or at a park for a couple hours. I have to do that in order to get a feel for how to capture stuff like this quickly, move the camera around a little to get the exposure looking right in viewfinder, lock exposure, recompose for focus, fire shutter. It's not easy at first but when you get it, it makes you better. The reason I suggest A mode is all your concerned with is DOF range, and you can quickly establish that and focus on exposure locking and composition. You may have been juggling a little bit in manual, extreme light, and the EC.