DSLR shipments down 10.9% in Second Quarter 2013

[brunerww]

Overall digital camera shipments down 36% in the same period: DSLR sales down for first time in a decade - AfterDawn

Andrew Reid at eoshd.com thinks consumer DSLRs will be dead in 5 years: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years" » EOSHD.com

It may take 10 years, and not 5, but the handwriting seems to be on the wall. As for me, I'm starting a camera phone blog

Bill

 

[KmH]

The bottom line -

it’s consumer apathy which will finally close the lid.

on consumer grade DSLR's.

 

[rexbobcat]

"The internet places low demands on image quality in terms of optics and resolution. Consumers are far more interested in content, information and what you do with an image after you take it."

So this is why people love to use $50 "all images on a CD and 30% of them are selective color" photographers. Lol

On a more serious note, why do we care so much about consumer DSLRs? Canon has been using the same sensor in its entry-level DSLRs for the past 20 years, so it's not like the camera industry is losing out on much if they stop producing them.

 

[usayit]

FEATURES | GALAXY S4 zoom

Before DSLRs, small point and shoot cameras (film) outnumbered SLRs by a good margin. When APS film came out Canon made a killing off of the Canon ELPH because of their tiny size and sharp looks; its what the consumer wanted.

Things have changed only a little... now its not only size and looks but

Integrate.. integrate.. integrate..

Film SLRs did just fine back then.. DSLRs will also do just fine now. Who are the big players in DSLR market may change.. depending on who has been keeping finances in check AND who is going to be innovative towards the more enthusiastic photography crowd. The rest of the consumers are now realizing what "good enough" means to them in terms of picture quality. They'll flock towards those type of products (camera phones).

 

[cgw]

Some context on offer here:

Of Personal Computers and Cameras | Gearophile | Thom Hogan

 

[gsgary]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...raditional-camera-film-makes-a-come-back.html

Sent from my GT-I9100P using Tapatalk 2

 

[amolitor]

Consumer gear drives the train. Without the amateur enthusiasts buying DSLRs, the professional gear is dead too.

In fact, this is as it has always been. Pros have been complaining about these damned amateurs ruining everything for 150 years, but without those damned amateurs driving progress the pros would still be flowing homemade collodion across glass plates.

Still, there's no reason to think the DSLR will be dead any time soon. It will be a decreasing niche for quite a while yet, for all we know there will be a viable business -- albeit one that looks nothing like the current DSLR business -- for the next 100 years.

The only photographic tech that seems to be legitimately dead is dry plate, and I'm not sure about that. Everything else is still with us, and shows no signs of vanishing.

ETA: Interesting that the article distinguishes between "Consumer" and "Enthusiast". I agree that Consumer demand is going to be zero for DSLRs. I'm not sure I really grasp the difference between a Consumer and an Enthusiast, although I do believe there's some sort of distinction to be made there. I know people who don't want a camera, they want pictures. Are those people Consumers?

 

[Tailgunner]

Consumer gear drives the train. Without the amateur enthusiasts buying DSLRs, the professional gear is dead too.

In fact, this is as it has always been. Pros have been complaining about these damned amateurs ruining everything for 150 years, but without those damned amateurs driving progress the pros would still be flowing homemade collodion across glass plates.

Still, there's no reason to think the DSLR will be dead any time soon. It will be a decreasing niche for quite a while yet, for all we know there will be a viable business -- albeit one that looks nothing like the current DSLR business -- for the next 100 years.

The only photographic tech that seems to be legitimately dead is dry plate, and I'm not sure about that. Everything else is still with us, and shows no signs of vanishing.

ETA: Interesting that the article distinguishes between "Consumer" and "Enthusiast". I agree that Consumer demand is going to be zero for DSLRs. I'm not sure I really grasp the difference between a Consumer and an Enthusiast, although I do believe there's some sort of distinction to be made there. I know people who don't want a camera, they want pictures. Are those people Consumers?

Agreed, consumer grade equipment supports the profession...more consumers buy POS and lower end DSLRs than Photographers buy Professional equipment. A decline in the Consumer end should be a little concerning.

As for the difference between a Consumer and Enthusiast, a Consumer is happy taking snap shots with a POS or lower end DSLR while an Enthusiast is a person who enjoys photography as a hobby.

 

[Derrel]

SNIP...more consumers buy POS and lower end DSLRs than Photographers buy Professional equipment. A decline in the Consumer end should be a little concerning.

As for the difference between a Consumer and Enthusiast, a Consumer is happy taking snap shots with a POS or lower end DSLR while an Enthusiast is a person who enjoys photography as a hobby.

Do you mean to say POS? Or did you mean P&S? POS traditionally means Piece Of S*i+....

Rich amateurs buy a lot of high-end professional cameras...over many decades, the top buying class for expensive Hasselblads, Rolleiflexs,Nikons,Leicas, and so on has always been the wealthy amateur, and NOT working professionals. The most-expensive cameras, the really high-end stuff, is bought by many people who want the so-called "best", and who want the status that comes from owning it.

I do not agree with the idea that the consumer d-slr will be dead in five years. I think it will still have status value, as well as actual consumer utility as a picture-taking device, and so it'll be around longer than five years.

 

[amolitor]

I think the big market distinction is between people who want pictures, and people who want a camera.

People who want pictures mostly use phones now, and within 5 years there will no excuse for NOT using your phone, if what you want it pictures.
If you want a camera, well, you'll still be buying cameras.

 

[Derrel]

I think the big market distinction is between people who want pictures, and people who want a camera.

People who want pictures mostly use phones now, and within 5 years there will no excuse for NOT using your phone, if what you want it pictures.
If you want a camera, well, you'll still be buying cameras.

YES. The idea that the cellphone camera will cause the total cessation of d-slr's, or other "serious cameras" is an idea that some people seem to love to blog about. Bloggers and website writers like Michael Reichmann talking about Canon and Nikon "sleeping" during this so-called "switch to mirrorless"....uh...so far the "switch" is not really happening.

The thing is, really wealthy people like Reichmann, the kind who have websites and blogs, and who own a digital MF system,a Canon system, a Leica System, a Sony NEX system, and a complete bunch of video cameras--those are the types of people who often buy and adopt new cameras and entire lens systems so easily, and so fast that they confuse their rarified buying habits with what the actual people of the world are doing.

So far, the only market where mirrorless sales are strong is the JAPAN market...which is a camera-centric culture. The remainder of the entire world has not "switched" to mirrorless; in fact quite the opposite. I suspect yet another instance of Reichmann hitting the white wine a bit too heavily then banging out another column filled with typos. ;-)

 

[amolitor]

I stole the 'wants pictures/wants cameras' terminology from Xerox. In the early days of photocopiers, Xerox decided (correctly, for the time, I think) that people didn't want photocopiers. They wanted copies.

So they started leasing the machines, essentially selling photocopies. Then things changed and their clients wanted the machine itself as it became more central to the business, and so on, and Xerox damn near lost it all failing to switch, but that's another story. This is now a parable in Marketing 101. Figure out what the customer actually WANTS and then SELL THEM THAT.

 

[cgw]

Problem for Nikon is that DX is guesstimated to be 80%+ of their DSLR sales, many of them "consumer" grade cameras. Soft sales there could cause real pain.

 

[Tailgunner]

SNIP...more consumers buy POS and lower end DSLRs than Photographers buy Professional equipment. A decline in the Consumer end should be a little concerning.

As for the difference between a Consumer and Enthusiast, a Consumer is happy taking snap shots with a POS or lower end DSLR while an Enthusiast is a person who enjoys photography as a hobby.

Do you mean to say POS? Or did you mean P&S? POS traditionally means Piece Of S*i+....

HAHA...I meant P&S...I think I did anyhow lol

 

[Derrel]

Problem for Nikon is that DX is guesstimated to be 80%+ of their DSLR sales, many of them "consumer" grade cameras. Soft sales there could cause real pain.

The market for d-slr cameras is now mature. After having undergone 10+ years of explosive growth in unit sales...the market is now mature, and the number of d-slr cameras in the world is higher than it has ever been. All that low-hanging fruit that the "original Digital Rebel" and the "original Nikon D70" represented is gone...picked clean. Both those two camera models represented the FIRST sub-$1,000 d-slr models, and both were big sellers. Fast forward a few years, and according to Nikon itself, their D40 was their BEST-selling camera model of all-time. That period, the period of explosive growth in d-slr sales, the period of more and more and more and more buyers--now the market has provided those millions of buyers with a d-slr. And, compared to that period of explosive growth--well, sales have slowed down.

It's amusing that so many people who blog don't provide any context whatsoever for sales figures, or overall market penetration, or, well ANYTHING. YES, d-slr sales have slowed....and yet--d-slr sales are, oh, let me guess, 10,000 times higher than the sales of 35mm film cameras. And 40,000 times the annual sales of medium format rollfilm cameras.

There are loads of idiot bloggers out there, predicting the demise of all sorts of things. For example, following the logic of some of these bloggers, I would report that, "BMW and Mercedes-Benz are headed for bankruptcy, since they each control less than 1.3 percent of the new car business world-wide." Uhhhhh...yeah....they do...neither has any major market share...look at the numbers.

Soft sales in d-slr CAMERAS represent only part of the business; there are also lenses, flashes, and accessories. Canon and Nikon also sell millions of lenses annually. Ask BMW and Mercedes-Benz how they're doing with those soft sales numbers...