http://photo.net/digital-darkroom-forum/00Vy86
http://schewephoto.com/ETTR/index.html
Jeff Schewe , Mar 10, 2010; 09:57 p.m. It would be useful to fully understand the principles behind ETTR if you wish to debunk them...
ETTR has NOTHING TO DO with the amount of levels in the shadows...it has nothing to do with the base ISO (vs altered ISO) is has EVERYTHING to do with the fact that more photons equals less perceptible noise (which means a better signal to noise ratio).
Your test is fine...it proves what you want to prove., but it does NOT prove that ETTR is wrong (or dangerous).
ETTR has EVERYTHING to do with the screen contrast range and the dynamic range of your sensor...if your scene contrast range is equal to or greater than your sensor, ETTR doesn't apply...forget about it and deal with trying to figure out what is the most important tones in your image and expose for them.
However, if the contrast scene of within the dynamic range of your sensor (or lower–as is often/usually the case with soft overcast light) then you are a fool to ignore ETTR...
More photons=better noise
That's the basis of ETTR, has nothing to do with "shadow bits.
You should also test out the fact that HTTR can also actually benefit when "modest" increases of ISO are used...with today's cameras you can prolly go upwards of ISO 800 and STILL take advantage of ETTR if the scene contrast range is below the sensor...