OP
I suggest you try renting the lens and giving it a try.
That would be much better than guessing and asking opinions of others.
Also the surf conditions and distance where you shoot may be significantly different than where others shoot.
Example a 400 might be too short for one location where the waves break further out, and too long for another location where the waves break close to shore.
Also where you site the camera affects the distance to the surfer.
You should also budget for a gimbal for your tripod. A gimbal makes tracking a moving subject with a LONG lens, much easier.
BTW you need to look at your budget again.
The Sigma 150-600 "contemporary" runs about $1,000 USD, which is $400 over your budget. The "sport" model is even more expensive.