OK I've been doing some math, some tests at various focal lengths (17mm, 35mm, 50mm). SEEMS like this formula yields a 100% perfect result:
cw = pxw * (f1 + c) / f2
Where:
pxw: pixel width of the photo shot at focal length f1
f1: actual focal length of photo
c: crop factor
f2: desired focal length
cw: resulting pixel width to crop the original photo
So for example, if I have a 17mm photo and I want to crop it down to see what it would look like shot at 250mm (my 40D shoots at 3888 x 2592):
3888 * (17 + 1.6) / 250 = 289 (produce 1:1 crop at 289 x 193)
Since I only have a 17-50mm lens, I was only able to test this formula out at a couple diff. focal lengths.. 35mm & 50mm. But with both cases, my "simulated" zoomed photo was an exact match with the actual 35/50mm photos.
Thoughts?

Actually if someone with a different lens could try this out, I'd appreciate it. Hold the camera still & take two shots, one at 55mm and one at 80mm or 150mm, etc. Apply the formula above to pick a part of the 55mm and crop it, see if it matches the ACTUAL zoom shot.
EDIT: for those with a killer eye.. does this look right? Examine the below photos as if they were full size shots out of the camera. The first one is real, not simulated.
17mm (actual true shot):
50mm (simulated)
250mm (simulated)
300mm (simulated)
Pretty interesting.. the difference between 17mm and 50mm (33mm) looks huge.. but the 50mm difference between 250mm and 300mm looks pretty small in comparison. So either my formula is way off, or that's how lenses work
