Nikon go Mirrorless, pt 2 (Thom Hogan)

[Solarflare]

Nikon's Mirrorless Options | Sans Mirror | Thom Hogan

Given that Nikon attacked GoPro in the action camera market and also tried to attack the high-end compact market with DLs before they tripped over their own toes, it's only a matter of time before Nikon opens up a new defense in the mirrorless realm. The simple matter of truth is this: Nikon is a camera company (over 60% of their revenues and even more of their profits). Not competing in the healthiest of the camera markets is suicide.

Actually both GoPro derivates as well as DL havent been much of a success for Nikon.

And "healthiest" camera market in this case just means: a market thats about stable, or not shrinking as fast as others.

3. Deprove the course. Build a DX entry mirrorless system, ala what Canon has done with EOS M. This is trickier than it at first looks, as Canon themselves discovered through their experimentation.

Canon EOS M sucks big time and isnt much of a commercial success either. And I dont see much of "experimentation" going on there. The native lens lineup for EOS M is barely functional at all. Was released with a normal zoom and a prime, took them ages to get a telephoto zoom, took them ages after to get a wide zoom, took them ages to get a macro. Now they have TWO superzooms, a ton of other zooms, and only two prime lenses, one of which is a very odd very short macro. ALL these lenses are rather dark and all zooms are plasticky. This is really not a great system. The only really good lens is the adapter to use Canon EF lenses.

This course has two sub-routes to it: (a) use the existing DX mount; or (b) create a new mount (and offer a DX/FX adapter).

Complete nobrainer, use a new mount and adapter.

As I've noted before, you could build lenses in the future that use Nikon's existing mount but which use the empty space vacated by the mirror to keep their size down (that works fine for DX, not so much for FX).

You could but you obviously really shouldnt, because that would look stupid/ugly, would make for stupid ergonomics, and would needlessly waste space. Just make a damn adapter.

4. Choose Sony's course. Build a new FX mirrorless system. Based upon my email and surveys, a lot of you reading this think that's the correct route. I don't. First, there's the signal it sends ("DSLR is dead"). That's a hugely dangerous signal for Nikon to ever consider sending, as DSLRs represent such a huge percentage of their sales and profits (at one time, over half). The only way this works is if the mirrorless cameras are better than the DSLRs (and clearly better than Sony's mirrorless entries), and a full set of lenses is available. Yeah, you just realized why it won't happen.

Quite frankly I fail to see whats wrong with offering a mirrorless and a SLR option. Just make two great product lines and then let the people buy what they prefer to have. If Nikon finally drops the stupid Nikon 1 line, they should have enough development resources for that.

SLRs and mirrorless both have their respective advantages.

And I think many people would be happy to get ANY full frame mirrorless thats not superexpensive with an inferior sensor from Leica or these rather questionably built Sony FE cameras. Because one of the treats of such a camera is that you can adapt anything to them. Thus yes one could start off with a nice trinity of prime lenses (lets say 20/2.8, 35/2, 105/2.8 macro IS) and a Nikon F to Nikon XYZ adapter.

5. Find a new course. This is Nikon's 100th anniversary and Nikon started as a different kind of camera maker. So why not start again? In particular I'm thinking of a Nikon S inspired system that uses an optical rangefinder and shoots for staying small and classic.

I'm confused as to why this is much different to point 4. Optical viewfinders are also in the Fuji X-Pro line, theres nothing original about them. Pure optical viewfinders should be left to Leica due to their limitations (need to be calibrated, only really works with primes in the range of about 28-75mm, maybe a bit more if the optics can be switched, either way also doesnt work with close focus/macro).

 

[robbins.photo]

My advice to Nikon would be simple. When Nikon decides it's time to come out with a full blown mirrorless option and really market it, have them present the camera and the adapter needed to adapt all existing F mount lenses as a package.

Take a look at Sony - yes, you can get an adapter for them - quite a few. But some will AF, some wont, most reports say that even the really good adapters are iffy, etc... And the really good adapters are in the $400 and up range.

Biggest hangup in mirrorless sales is the availability of lenses. Yes, I would like to get a mirrorless at some point. And yes, I realize that mounting a tiny camera on a large lens makes it s little unwieldy - but still I don't want to dump a ton of money in a system where I can't use lenses I already own and have to buy "equivalents" in another mount automatically. I'd rather have that choice of when I buy those lenses that are actually made specifically for the camera.

So if I were Nikon, I'd get a few lenses in the lineup first, and package an adapter that allows full function of current F mount lenses with the camera body.

But then again, I'm no Thom Hogan...

 

[pixmedic]

you can sum up pretty much every Thom Hogan article thusly....

"I know Nikon has been around for 100 years, and they haven't taken me seriously yet....but THIS TIME if Nikon doesn't implement my ideas they will definitely be going out of business soon...I know ive been saying that for decades, but this time its for real!"

 

[astroNikon]

I thought Sony was buying Leica ?

... maybe we'll see Hasselblads on DJI drones soon ...

and Nikon will still be in business ...

 

[pixmedic]

I actually have more respect for Ken Rockwell as a photographic information source than Thom.
every article he writes is crapping on Nikon while simultaneously trying out Nikons newest body and lens.

 

[Destin]

I actually have more respect for Ken Rockwell as a photographic information source than Thom.
every article he writes is crapping on Nikon while simultaneously trying out Nikons newest body and lens.

And that says a LOT. Just ask Ken Rockwell, and the Nikon D7200 is THE BEST DAMN CAMERA that nikon has ever produced. And it works best if you use it with an 18-55 kit lens because they area just rockstar awesome!

 

[Derrel]

I actually have more respect for Ken Rockwell as a photographic information source than Thom.
Every article he writes is crapping on Nikon while simultaneously trying out Nikons newest body and lens.

Same here. I've read Rockwell for a decade and a half, on and off. He actually tests out a LOT of lenses and cameras that photo hobbyists and even pros are interested in buying. He has tested so many wide zooms for DX...and with a consistent test bed-REAL PHOTOS!!!! Like shots of the palm against the setting sun, same neighborhood, for five years...SHOWS us what the flare and ghosting is like. Offers actual photos for download. Has owned and shot more lenses than probably anybody except Bjorn Rorslett, another famous Nikon gear-hound. Writes for people who want good pictures. Understands how Auto ISO can be utilized, etc. Tells people that good light is important. etc,etc. Does he have some negatives? Sure.

Thom, the guide book writer, well---he writes fantastic books. His The Complete Guide to The Nikon ______, that entire series of books/DVD's are well,well,well worth their cost, and are filled with amazing insights on how to actually use Nikon gear. Twenty, thirty times better than Nikon's bad manuals. Not talking Thom the blogger, talking Thom the Nikon Gear and Lens Expert: he knooooooooows his s**+.

But yeah...Thom the blogger and his business and marketing assertions/proclamaitions/predictions of woe....it's a blind spot he has, for sure. World's second-largest camera company, still in bid'ness, despite his advice. Huh.

 

[robbins.photo]

I actually have more respect for Ken Rockwell as a photographic information source than Thom.
every article he writes is crapping on Nikon while simultaneously trying out Nikons newest body and lens.

And that says a LOT. Just ask Ken Rockwell, and the Nikon D7200 is THE BEST DAMN CAMERA that nikon has ever produced. And it works best if you use it with an 18-55 kit lens because they area just rockstar awesome!

Actually I think his favorite lens is the 28-200. For a while there he was comparing everything to it... lol

Sent from my N9518 using Tapatalk

 

[Derrel]

My advice to Nikon would be simple. When Nikon decides it's time to come out with a full blown mirrorless option and really market it, have them present the camera and the adapter needed to adapt all existing F mount lenses as a package.

This is a tricky thing to understand...there are what? Isn't it 80 million Nikkor lenses that have been made? Not all, but the vast majority in F-mount. If these can be used on a mirrorless, that will surely hurt lens sales for the new Nikon mirrorless cameras. At least to existing customers who already own F-mount gear.

The G-series lenses do not work on vintage Nikon cameras, except at smallest aperture opening. The E-diaphragm lenses work properly and fully only on the newer bodies. The AF-P focusing lenses work only on the VERY-newest cameras. These three lens technologies have been coming on slowly. The AF-P focusing protocol uses stepper motors in the lenses, and will NOT work on "older cameras" that are just a few years of age!

This tells us: something is brewing at Nikon HQ. Although I would like to be able to use a 1974 55mm f/3.5 pre-AI Nikkor macro on a new mirrorless...I have the feeling that E-diapragm and maybe stepper-motor AF-P focusing, andfast-fast still photo focusing and silent focusing for video, are both a part of the way forward. But it is tricky: anger the "old Nikon" crowd? Or make something really,really NEW, something that can shoot video, with no AF sounds, no AF issues, and can appeal to the SmartPhone Set and the New generation consumers?

 

[runnah]

It feels like a big game of chicken between the big two, who will blink first.

Frankly at this point its starting to seem like a moot point as more and more the normal smart phone produced media is considered acceptable for mass media production. And when I say mass media I mean social media, polished presentation is a thing of the past.

 

[astroNikon]

Canon did it a while back changing mounts.
Sony ...

I don't think those companies went out of business due to switching mount technologies. Sometimes a change is needed to advance a technology. With video, and noiseless lens motors needed I don't see how that is not a step that Nikon needs to make.

Backwards compatibility is a high cost game and adds tech to systems. Think of how many times Microsoft has made windows backwards compatible for old software, or Apple making things backwards compatible with old apps (Ha!, NOT). Apple has instilled on it's user base if you upgrade the OS you'll probably have to upgrade most everything else. The thing that turned me off to Apple.

 

[robbins.photo]

My advice to Nikon would be simple. When Nikon decides it's time to come out with a full blown mirrorless option and really market it, have them present the camera and the adapter needed to adapt all existing F mount lenses as a package.

This is a tricky thing to understand...there are what? Isn't it 80 million Nikkor lenses that have been made? Not all, but the vast majority in F-mount. If these can be used on a mirrorless, that will surely hurt lens sales for the new Nikon mirrorless cameras. At least to existing customers who already own F-mount gear.

The G-series lenses do not work on vintage Nikon cameras, except at smallest aperture opening. The E-diaphragm lenses work properly and fully only on the newer bodies. The AF-P focusing lenses work only on the VERY-newest cameras. These three lens technologies have been coming on slowly. The AF-P focusing protocol uses stepper motors in the lenses, and will NOT work on "older cameras" that are just a few years of age!

This tells us: something is brewing at Nikon HQ. Although I would like to be able to use a 1974 55mm f/3.5 pre-AI Nikkor macro on a new mirrorless...I have the feeling that E-diapragm and maybe stepper-motor AF-P focusing, andfast-fast still photo focusing and silent focusing for video, are both a part of the way forward. But it is tricky: anger the "old Nikon" crowd? Or make something really,really NEW, something that can shoot video, with no AF sounds, no AF issues, and can appeal to the SmartPhone Set and the New generation consumers?

Not so sure about this one myself. Don't get me wrong, I understand the thought process. If I can use my F mount lenses then I won't buy any for the new mirrorless system.

I might just be speaking for myself of course, but I would. Since the idea behind mirrorless is to have a small, lightweight system then yes eventually I'd want to have lenses that match. I wouldn't want to keep my 70-200mm 2.8 mounted on a dinky little camera body all that often.

But again, could just be me - but I really don't want to invest in any system that has a selection of say, half a dozen lenses most of which are in the 200mm and under range. I've been very tempted to try the Sony A6000, for example, but the reviews I'm getting on the adapters are very mixed, even the very expensive ones seem to have intermittent problems.

I do agree that it's a balancing act for Nikon or any camera manufacturer - sometimes you need to make changes to improve the performance from where it was previously, and you always have to consider is that really worth the trade off of losing functionality on older bodies.

 

[Derrel]

Frankly at this point its starting to seem like a moot point as more and more the normal smart phone produced media is considered acceptable for mass media production. And when I say mass media I mean social media, polished presentation is a thing of the past.

^^^^^^^ THIS!!!!^^^^^^^ A thousand times over!

He((...maybe Nikon ought to get into the cameraphone business.

The new 10x optical zoom labelled Hasselblad, for the Moto-Z phones has me interested...I went Android recently after 5 years on iPhone... Sports-Illustrated is now plugging this Hasselblad phone-attachment camera clip-on with one of its bigshot 'photogs...on Facebook.

Imagine...a camera that snaps right on to one's smartphone, with a 10x optical zoom....hmmmm....

 

[runnah]

Frankly at this point its starting to seem like a moot point as more and more the normal smart phone produced media is considered acceptable for mass media production. And when I say mass media I mean social media, polished presentation is a thing of the past.

^^^^^^^ THIS!!!!^^^^^^^ A thousand times over!

He((...maybe Nikon ought to get into the cameraphone business.

The new 10x optical zoom labelled Hasselblad, for the Moto-Z phones has me interested...I went Android recently after 5 years on iPhone... Sports-Illustrated is now plugging this Hasselblad phone-attachment camera clip-on with one of its bigshot 'photogs...on Facebook.

Imagine...a camera that snaps right on to one's smartphone, with a 10x optical zoom....hmmmm....

In my industry its becoming a huge trend. Clients want "the youtube look" or "raw look". More and more bloggers and journalists are showing up to events with a smart phone on a gimble and either livestreaming or doing very very basic editing before putting on youtube.

In some ways it's good because its more content than flash, but depressing to those who work in the industry.

 

[Derrel]

My niece works as a field reporter in the Monterey, CA area for a network TV station there...yeah...I know what you mean, there's now a big emphasis on Facebook Live streams, throughout the day, and pre-event, and they are also shooting regular news assignments on smartphones, little Panasonics, little Canon's, little Nikons, and slapping video pieces together on their own MacBookPro unit.

In today's news business, she tells me that this is called, "One-Man Banding". Budgets for a camera guy, a sound guy, and a producer?? Pfffft....long gone.

I hope that this trend (raw-look video) will die off within a few years. I expect it will. Things are cyclical. I think the window of opportunity, and I mean REAL, significant, long-term opportunity for mirrorless cameras was totally MISSED by Canon and Nikon. And now? Good, really GOOD smartphone cameras exist, and they suit what people want, right now. Small.Thin, Affordable. CONNECTED to Facebook and the 'net, with roaming data upload, WiFi,BlueTooth, Near Field Communication, and most critically---easy sharing of still images and video.

And that is the one area Thom Hogan justifiably beats Nikon up for: they have done a terrible job on keeping up with the real issue: how to get images to the web, or Facebook, or YouTube very FAST, and reliably, and with dumb-as-a-post-user interfaces. My God...I bought a cheap Android three weeks ago...I am now Bluetooth sharing, and uploading, INSTANTLY. I do not own a Nikon that can do that. I can WATCH TV on this phone!! And I DO! WTF do I want a mirrorless camera for?