So I know nothing about photography, but am enjoying starting to come up to speed. But one thing I know is technical junk (20+ years of computer programming here) ... So, raw files capture all the detail of the sensor, but then that data, as it's stored in a file, is compressed. Otherwise the file would be even larger. You don't lose any of the information (unlike some compression schemes which lose some data). But it is compressed. So depending on the types of data in the image (mostly, the variety in the image), the file may be slightly larger or smaller. Shouldn't be a big difference, but a difference nonetheless.
As an example, (this is not how raw files actually work, but a very simplistic example of how compression could work), instead of the camera storing 15 pixels worth of "black" data, repeating much of the information for each pixel, the camera could store it like this "15 pixels of this specific color code", which potentially could be much smaller. Now the formula it uses is far more complex than that, but I think that gives an example of how something *can* be compressed and not lose any data, and how the actual image data can affect the raw file size.
Now, how that all relates to exposure settings ... (which as a total noob to photography I don't understand yet) ... well, if that causes the image to have more variation in the individual pixels of data, then depending on the formula to store the data, the file could potentially be larger.
As a caveat, some cameras don't compress the raw (to my understanding), and others do.
Here are some links with more info on raw files:
Kevin