CIPA: Less than 7 million cameras have shipped from Jan-Oct 202

[dolina]

https://www.dpreview.com/news/55975...s-mostly-recovered-from-its-covid-19-downturn

And I personally expect November-December 2020 to not ship more than 2 million digital still cameras (DSC).

A grand total of less than 9 million DSC shipped globally for 2020.

This would be the worst year since the all time high of 121 million back in 2010

Will it settle back again at about 1999's 5.06 million?

In 2019 the global shipment of DSC was 15.2 million vs 1.52 billion of smartphones.

That's a ratio of 1 DSC to 100 smartphones.

Camera makers are now focusing on camera features iPhones and Androids will have difficulty replicating due to their limited size. Though these "advantages" may not last long due to computational photography. The features are

• Larger image sensors that allow for higher ISO and dynamic range
• Super zooms that allow 35mm equivalent optical zooms of 20mm to 3,000mm
• Better water resistance or ruggedness
• Built-in photo paper printing

Even with the limited dimensions of a conventional smartphone R&D money from over billions of smartphones sold annually allowed for creation of

• Larger image sensor: iPhone is now 47% larger than before & Android made improvements as well
• Super zooms: Have been addressed by having more than 1 rear cameras with ultrawide, wide & telephoto zoom ranges
• Better water resistance: iPhones 12 now can do IP68 under IEC standard 60529 (maximum depth of 6 meters up to 30 minutes) & Android can do something similar as well
• Built-in photo paper printing... smartphone makers are smart enough not to sell to hipsters.

 

[jcdeboever]

I am not moved by these stats. The camera is a tool. Doesn't matter what box they house it in.

 

[dolina]

I am not moved by these stats. The camera is a tool. Doesn't matter what box they house it in.

It's a cause of concern. Either the brand will shut down and you cannot have your camera repaired when you it to be or their future products will be more expensive than you last remember.

 

[cgw]

No mention in the OP's less-than informed chattering of the pandemic and its horrific impact on income, employment or travel. This year's decline isn't enough to interpret as a trend. It's insufficient time-series data. It's bad but I can't see large chunks of sky falling. Companies like Nikon with a knack for unforced errors in product development are another matter entirely.

 

[dolina]

No mention in the OP's less-than informed chattering of the pandemic and its horrific impact on income, employment or travel. This year's decline isn't enough to interpret as a trend. It's insufficient time-series data. It's bad but I can't see large chunks of sky falling. Companies like Nikon with a knack for unforced errors in product development are another matter entirely.

The article I linked to has all the COVID-19 details you crave for. I am not one to regurgitate it like a mama bird to its chicks as I do not see anyone here that infantile.

Now the question is will it stabilize or exceed 9 million units shipped for all 12 months of 2021 or 2022?

Or it will it decline further to say 7.2 million? It's been a nose dive since 2010

 

[limr]

Sorry, I really don't see the point in all of this.

 

[weepete]

Smartphones are encroching on the market and tech moves on. TBH I'd love to see the day where I can get pro quality photos of sports and wildlife from someting I'm going to buy anyway. AI could do some really interesting things, and tech may kill off a seperate camera market, but I don't think we are close yet.

There's more to it than just camera sales. Sure, the compact camera market has been pretty much destoyed by tech advancements, but what proportion of that is ILCs? And given 2020 can be pretty much written off due to Covid,will there be a massive resurgange in lifestyle photography in the coming years?

 

[dolina]

Sorry, I really don't see the point in all of this.

It matters for these reasons

The brand/system you use may

• increase in price of its current/future products as economies of scales drop
  
• close down operations in countries with weak sales
• cease having after sales support to repair your camera when it gets damage
  
• file for bankruptcy and disappear as a brand orphaning your system
  
• be bought up by the #1 or #2 camera brand, by market cap/share, or a smartphone brand like Huawei, Xiaomi, etc

My points are supported by what is happening to Pentax, Nikon, Olympus and Samsung

 

[dolina]

Smartphones are encroching on the market and teah moves on. TBH I'd love to see the day where I can get pro quality photos of sports and wildlife from someting I'm going to buy anyway. AI could do some really interesting things, and tech may kill off a seperate camera market, but I don't think we are close yet.

There's more to it than just camera sales. Sure, the compact camera market has been pretty much destoyed by tech advancements, but what proportion of that is ILCs? And given 2020 can be pretty much written off due to Covid,will there be a massive resurgange in lifestyle photography in the coming years?

I agree with all your points.

I see mirrorless to end up having at most 2 brands. Canon and probably Sony.

 

[limr]

Sorry, I really don't see the point in all of this.

It matters for these reasons

The brand/system you use may

• increase in price of its current/future products as economies of scales drop
  
• close down operations in countries with weak sales
• cease having after sales support to repair your camera when it gets damage
  
• file for bankruptcy and disappear as a brand orphaning your system
  
• be bought up by the #1 or #2 camera brand, by market cap/share, or a smartphone brand like Huawei, Xiaomi, etc

But...so what?

I mean, markets go through peaks and troughs all the time and this doesn't always mean the worst case scenarios.

And even if it does, so what? It's happened before. People move on. There's nothing here that indicates disaster.

 

[dolina]

But...so what?

I mean, markets go through peaks and troughs all the time and this doesn't always mean the worst case scenarios.

And even if it does, so what? It's happened before. People move on. There's nothing here that indicates disaster.

For the past decade it has been a downward trend YoY

It matters to a lot of persons.

People who invested more than 1 lens or accessory to a camera body whether they're a working photographer or hobbyist.

To make it relevant to mods I've noticed about half a dozen other photo forums that shut down their servers because of lack of user activity.

If you have access to this forum's user visits stats graph it out from day 1 of operations to today. You may notice that the bell shaped curve of the graph I provided above will nearly match this forum's # of visits when delayed by a year or 2.

So does that matter to you now?

 

[limr]

But...so what?

I mean, markets go through peaks and troughs all the time and this doesn't always mean the worst case scenarios.

And even if it does, so what? It's happened before. People move on. There's nothing here that indicates disaster.

For the past decade it has been a downward trend YoY

It matters to a lot of persons.

People who invested more than 1 lens or accessory to a camera body whether they're a working photographer or hobbyist.

To make it relevant to mods I've noticed about half a dozen other photo forums that shut down their servers because of lack of user activity.

If you have access to this forum's user visits stats graph it out from day 1 of operations to today. You may notice that the bell shaped curve of the graph I provided above will nearly match this forum's # of visits when delayed by a year or 2.

So does that matter to you now?

No, not really. I would like this forum to stick around, and if it doesn't, I'll miss it, but it's not my whole life and I'll move on.

Sorry, I am not going to get all worked up over this. Statistics don't tell the whole story, and market fluctuations are sometimes short term and other times long term.

Ultimately, what does it really mean, in the very long term when it would actually make a significant difference in people's lives? Professionals move on to other camera systems. Hobbyists move on to other camera systems. It has happened before, it'll happen again. I'm not going to lose any sleep over it.

 

[mountainjunkie]

Sorry, I really don't see the point in all of this.

It matters for these reasons

The brand/system you use may

• increase in price of its current/future products as economies of scales drop
  
• close down operations in countries with weak sales
• cease having after sales support to repair your camera when it gets damage
  
• file for bankruptcy and disappear as a brand orphaning your system
  
• be bought up by the #1 or #2 camera brand, by market cap/share, or a smartphone brand like Huawei, Xiaomi, etc

My points are supported by what is happening to Pentax, Nikon, Olympus and Samsung

For anyone who’s studied economics at all these are all valid points/concerns. And the graph Dolina posted above should make it clear this isn’t just a Covid thing.

As someone who’s dabbled in deep space photography this year I can tell you that market hasn’t struggled at all. In fact the lower and mid-priced (relatively...nothing is cheap in the deep space imaging realm) scopes, cameras, and accessories have been tough to find because demand is so high. Used items commonly go for 80-90% of new because there isn’t any new inventory to be had.

Despite the economic downturn there are enough people still with money to take up a new hobby, or to expand their existing one, as it’s something that can be done despite any social distancing regulations.

The difference between this and mass-market DSLR cameras and lenses? Can’t touch this type of photography with a smart phone.

Can’t blame EVERYTHING on Covid.

 

[dolina]

Ultimately, what does it really mean, in the very long term when it would actually make a significant difference in people's lives? Professionals move on to other camera systems. Hobbyists move on to other camera systems. It has happened before, it'll happen again. I'm not going to lose any sleep over it.

Fewer people will be able to camera, lenses and accessories. Just hope the price increase won't be too expensive for people like me.

 

[dolina]

For anyone who’s studied economics at all these are all valid points/concerns. And the graph Dolina posted above should make it clear this isn’t just a Covid thing.

As someone who’s dabbled in deep space photography this year I can tell you that market hasn’t struggled at all. In fact the lower and mid-priced (relatively...nothing is cheap in the deep space imaging realm) scopes, cameras, and accessories have been tough to find because demand is so high. Used items commonly go for 80-90% of new because there isn’t any new inventory to be had.

Despite the economic downturn there are enough people still with money to take up a new hobby, or to expand their existing one, as it’s something that can be done despite any social distancing regulations.

The difference between this and mass-market DSLR cameras and lenses? Can’t touch this type of photography with a smart phone.

Can’t blame EVERYTHING on Covid.

Thank you for expanding my point further.

As for deep space photography it is very possible that supply of deep space hardware evaporated due to supply chain disruption while demand for it either dipped a bit or remained stable.

Hence a seller's market for deep space hardware.

Given enough R&D money and time I see iPhones and Android smartphones able to do a "poor man's" deep space photography today.

By 2030 it may match a EOS R5 or Alpha a7S III in terms of ISO, dynamic range, ISO noise, etc.

I can say this as in poor countries like the Philippines there are a number of sub-$150 Chinese smartphone users who use it to take milkyway photos.

Of course it's good enough for adults making less than $10k/year or have a wealth of less than $10k but the tech has come to a point that it's "good enough" to put on Facebook.

COVID-19 at most reduced camera shipments by 3.2 million units. This is 80% of 2019 shipping numbers minus 9 million flat of my expected 2020 shipping numbers