CIPA: Less than 7 million cameras have shipped from Jan-Oct 202

[snowbear]

If they go away or get too expensive, learn to draw.

 

[cgw]

OK, you got the attention you plainly relish. Much of the breathless “Chicken Little Breaking News” flashes are old news, stone-cold stuff pushed out by others with even better imaginations for the past several years. CIPA quarterly shipment stats are snapshots. Think you need to consider the relevance of the old saying that the stock market isn’t the economy.
‘

 

[VidThreeNorth]

I posted about this back on Dec. 2, 2020, and we have discussed this at length previously over the last few years in other topics (particularly about Nikon):

"Japanese Camera Industry Down Again for 2020, but. . . ."
"Japanese Camera Industry Down Again for 2020, but. . . ."

 

[dolina]

OK, you got the attention you plainly relish. Much of the breathless “Chicken Little Breaking News” flashes are old news, stone-cold stuff pushed out by others with even better imaginations for the past several years. CIPA quarterly shipment stats are snapshots. Think you need to consider the relevance of the old saying that the stock market isn’t the economy.
‘

Think of it this way.

You bought your camera & lens for X amount some time ago.

When its time to replace it with a future model will you be happy to pay double that?

Here's a graph of what has been happening since 1999. Numbers dont lie... prices will sky rocket beyond many's means.

 

[limr]

So it's been 10 years. Have they skyrocketed yet? Are cameras any more out of reach than they ever were? Is it going to happen after one more year of decline? Ten more years of decline? No one will buy used cameras?

By this logic, film camera prices should be astronomical by now.

I think your conclusion is overstated. But you seem to be quite convinced on the strength of one graph and one measure of what's happening. *shrug*

 

[dolina]

So it's been 10 years. Have they skyrocketed yet? Are cameras any more out of reach than they ever were? Is it going to happen after one more year of decline? Ten more years of decline? No one will buy used cameras?

By this logic, film camera prices should be astronomical by now.

I think your conclusion is overstated. But you seem to be quite convinced on the strength of one graph and one measure of what's happening. *shrug*

Happy New Year to you!

 

[limr]

So it's been 10 years. Have they skyrocketed yet? Are cameras any more out of reach than they ever were? Is it going to happen after one more year of decline? Ten more years of decline? No one will buy used cameras?

By this logic, film camera prices should be astronomical by now.

I think your conclusion is overstated. But you seem to be quite convinced on the strength of one graph and one measure of what's happening. *shrug*

Happy New Year to you!

Enjoy your falling skies.

 

[dolina]

Enjoy your falling skies.

Don't get angry at me for presenting facts that do not interest you or are disagreeable.

The drop of sales I am pointing to will impact the sale price of cameras as we can see now in the present and most likely the future too.

As volume reduces the per unit sale price of cameras will only go up.

• 2005 5D intro price was $3,299.
• 2008 5D Mark II intro price was $2,699.
• 2012 5D Mark III intro price was $3,499.
• 2016 5D Mark IV intro price was $3,499.
• 2020 R5 intro price was $3,899.

Many here will balk at paying 2-3x what we're paying today in bodies, lenses and accessories.

I would not be surprised if the R5 Mark II will cost nearly $5,000 by year 2024 or later.

When cameras shipped settles at 5 million units per year I would not be surprised that it will be the case.

And film's as significant as LPs and range finder cameras. Appealing to the outliers of outliers.

1 film camera for every 10,000 smartphone shipped?

I'm glad I moved to digital in 1996 and never looked back ever since.

 

[limr]

Enjoy your falling skies.

Don't get angry at me for presenting facts that do not interest you or are disagreeable.

The drop of sales I am pointing to will impact the sale price of cameras as we can see now in the present and most likely the future too.

As volume reduces the per unit sale price of cameras will only go up.

• 2005 5D intro price was $3,299.
• 2008 5D Mark II intro price was $2,699.
• 2012 5D Mark III intro price was $3,499.
• 2016 5D Mark IV intro price was $3,499.
• 2020 R5 intro price was $3,899.

Many here will balk at paying 2-3x what we're paying today in bodies, lenses and accessories.

I would not be surprised if the R5 Mark II will cost nearly $5,000 by year 2024 or later.

When cameras shipped settles at 5 million units per year I would not be surprised that it will be the case.

And film's as significant as LPs and range finder cameras. Appealing to the outliers of outliers.

1 film camera for every 10,000 smartphone shipped?

I'm glad I moved to digital in 1996 and never looked back ever since.

Who's angry? Why are you so interested in convincing me of your conclusion? I am clearly not interested and have said as much, and yet, here you are, continuing to pay attention to me. Why are you wasting your time?

 

[dolina]

Who's angry? Why are you so interested in convincing me of your conclusion? I am clearly not interested and have said as much, and yet, here you are, continuing to pay attention to me. Why are you wasting your time?

It's discussion forum. People normally discuss topics of shared concern.

As you're not interested then why even participate?

 

[limr]

Who's angry? Why are you so interested in convincing me of your conclusion? I am clearly not interested and have said as much, and yet, here you are, continuing to pay attention to me. Why are you wasting your time?

It's discussion forum. People normally discuss topics of shared concern.

As you're not interested then why even participate?

As I said, I believe your conclusion is far overstated. You are the one who keeps trying to convince me and claiming that I am angry simply because I disagree with your conclusions (and if you think I am disagreeing with the fact of declining sales, or upset that you have posted graphs, then you are misreading or inferring a whole hell of a lot that is not in anything that I wrote.) Yes, this is a discussion forum. Discussions do not mean that everyone agrees with you. People are allowed to disagree.

 

[dolina]

Gaslighting a discussion thread that you're not interested in.

I do not expect yes men in this forum but neither did i expect people with no interest in the topic chiming in.

 

[cgw]

Gaslighting a discussion thread that you're not interested in.

I do not expect yes men in this forum but neither did i expect people with no interest in the topic chiming in.

Now I get it: people who disagree with you shouldn't bother chiming in because they aren't really interested(in agreeing with you).

Time to put this troll on a starvation diet, limr.

 

[dolina]

Now I get it: people who disagree with you shouldn't bother chiming in because they aren't really interested(in agreeing with you).

Time to put this troll on a starvation diet, limr.

The lengths people go to to shoot the messenger for news and facts they disagree with.

 

[smoke665]

I don't necessarily agree or disgree with "all" of the presumptions put forth by the OP, but it does seem like the criticism of the OP has gotten a little harsh.

To me the evolution of the cell phone has killed the lower end consumer market for cameras. There's only so much disposable income and with smart phones reaching the $$$$ mark, there isn't money left. Plus we live in a social media world where pictures are taken, and shared over the internet in seconds. There isn't a need for a secondary device that "only" takes pictures. That narrows the market considerably to the hobbyist and professional. I've yet to see professional grade equipment in anything sell cheap.

As to the life of camera manufactures, long ago they diversified into other markets. Canon, Nikon, Pentax.....are all part of diversified companies that provide products for business and the medical field. By and large cameras are only a small part of their volume. Now as camera volume declines there's a real possibility that operation funding might shift, but whether they drop the line completely is debatable.

As a life long Pentax diehard, my biggest disappointment with the brand has been the release price of the new glass. With prices ranging from over $1k to $2k it's a tough nut to crack for the average hobbyist. I've waited years for the 70-200 and the 85, but with a price of $1,800 & $1900 respectively I'll be saving a little longer. The one advantage with Pentax is the backward/forward compatibility mindset.