Derrel
Mr. Rain Cloud
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Nikon reps have explicitly said in two separate interviews that the D800 sits ALONGSIDE the D700 in the lineup. This would make it sound as if it's not the replacement. They even said it at the revealing press release. So, I don't see why everyone, including the review sites, are saying that it's certain the D800 is the D700s replacement.
As for the next camera announcement, I'm going to say there's a 90% chance it's a DX D400, 35% chance its an FX D400, 10% chance it's a D700 replacement with D3s specs and sensor (though how I wish it were true!), and a 0% chance it's the D7100. That will be for August. I would say Nikon is going to announce the D400 in the spring, and the D7100 and D3200 in the fall. This will give them 5 new bodies for this year.
Mark
Some good comments Mark. I'm not much at math, but your chances in percentages add up to 135% in total...
Yes, Nikon reps have stated that the D800 is NOT the replacement for the D700. HOWEVER, we need to think back to the D7000 DX body announcement----Nikon stated that the D7000 was NOT THE REPLACEMENT for the D90.....hmmmm...putting one and one together....I'm going to venture a guess that the new HIGH-END CONSUMER body, ie, the D90's replacement, will be the next announcement. Not the D300s's replacement, but a really nice,nice, high-end DX camera body that has a bigger, better viewfinder than the D7000 has, with more features and much more of a high-end "enthusiast camera" ethos to it. I consider the D300s to be a pro-backup type of camera, and Nikon itself and NPS consider the D300s a "pro" Nikon...
Thom Hogan's idea that there needs to be a body between the D7000 and the D800 bodies is of course, pretty simple marketing; that big of a price gap simply can NOT be allowed to exist. So, I am looking for a D90 follow-up to be announced very soon.