Before one can reasonably make a claim that crop sensors are done for, it's necessary to look at two independent yet interlinked objectives/priorities/goals
First and foremost is technology. In the 46 years since I began my career in computers, RAM memory has gone from an 24” x 24” grid of iron core memory (1024 CHARACTERS in size…not K, not meg, not gigs, CHARACTERS!) to a 32 gig SDHC card about the size of a quarter!
In the film-age, photographs went from 8x10 negatives (give or take), and started shrinking from there. 35mm became the ‘standard’ partly due to the limits of film grain (eg, image quality) and ease of use (the roll in a 35mm canister was infinitely easier to use than a double-roll film such as 616, 120, etc). Sure, smaller film sizes like 110 came along, and had easy-to-use drop-in cartridges, but the IQ was never intended to be there.
In the digital photography age, sensors have gone from fractional megapixels to over 30mp in an incredibly short span of years. So who is to say that it won’t stop at, say, 100mp and then some new technology makes digital photography completely obsolete?
The second objective/priority/goal is that of marketing. Like cable TV, there are specific market segments that each company tries to serve. The cable company has sports channels, news channels, movie channels, shopping channels, and on and on.
Likewise, camera companies market products to different audiences as well. Kodak went from unknown to the photography giant it was by making photography simple, easy to use, and most of all, affordable to the masses. Simple box cameras in the 30s and 40s were the point-n-shoots of the day (in bright sunlight only, of course). Meanwhile, the “pros” were using Speedgraphic cameras, with (about) 4”x6” film in nifty individual frame holders, etc, etc. Kodak made their billions making complex photography simple for the masses. Unfortunately, Kodak management never dreamed that digital photography would advance beyond the ‘fad’, low-resolution, needed a computer to see the pictures stage.
Meanwhile, the ‘serious’ photographic equipment companies sprang up in the 30’s and 40’s (and perhaps before) with the likes of Carl Zeiss, Leica, and other European manufacturers making very high quality lenses and equipment. Canon and Nikon started in the 30s as well. They weren’t after the point-n-shoot crowd. They wanted people to take high-quality pictures, not just snapshots.
Throughout the 40s, 50s, 60s, etc, Kodak had their niche, and the 35mm (and larger) manufacturers had their following. Then a funny thing happened…digital photography! There were some rough starts by a number of companies…I can’t even remember the camera brand my friend showed me that took 10 digital pictures and put it on a single 1.44 meg floppy disk! Cool! Crude, yes. Easy to use, surprisingly so! By the mid 80s, somewhat compact, point-n-shoot type digital cameras hit the streets. By the mid 90s, digital SLRs were available to the built upon the lessons learned in the earlier digital years.
And surprise, surprise…digital point-n-shoot started seriously eroding Kodaks’ “easy to use” market share. Todays’ point-n-shoots are seriously closing in on DSLR capabilities in nearly everything but still lack DSLR optics, IQ, dynamic range, noise, etc. But, as stated above, technology is forever advancing.
So where are things headed? What is the ‘magical combination’ that Canon, Nikon, et al are going to be coming up with?
First of all, don’t overlook the cell-phone cameras. They are getting better by the day as well. There is no doubt in my mind that cell-phone cameras WILL put Kodak completely out of business. And as Motorola, Nokia and all the other cell phone makers improve their capabilities, they will be taking market share from the point-n-shoot business of the Canons, etc.
As I see it, there are presently 5 market segments –
Cell phone cameras – Get the picture, easy to use, and always available.
Point-n-shoots – Better than a cell phone, some control, and quite sufficient for ‘the masses’.
Entry Level DSLRs – When point-n-shoot no longer delivers what you want, then it’s DSLR time. This segment and point-n-shoots are Walmarts’ bread and butter of the photography department.
Prosumer DSLRs – “movin’ on up!” Can shoot with the ‘big boys’, but still use kit glass to save on costs!
Pro DSLRs – When nothing but the best quality results will do, this is where you will be.
Where will it be 10 years from now? Just 3 segments -
Cellphones/Ipads, etc for the masses using APS-C sensors
Entry level all-in-one still/movie cameras using 35mm sensors
High-end still/movie cameras using 100mp sensors bigger than 35mm.
Company marketing strategists “target” various price points. Today, that market is approximately:
$zero-100 – Cellphones – getting cheaper EVERY day!!!
$300-500 – Point-n-shoot
$500-1000 – Entry level DSLR kits
$1000-2000 – Prosumer kits
$3000-SKY – Professional equipment
What will the pricepoints of the future be? Who knows? But it all comes down to one thing…the merged results of technology, costs, and what size “the market” for a product is.
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