Then God Said to Noah....

[Ysarex]

It's been raining so I got a break from the garden and got back to the photos from my recent trip. Drove through Commerce MO. and grabbed a couple snapshots. Folks in Commerce have never had levee protection from the river. In recent decades the "500 year" (that's what the experts call them) floods have gotten more frequent but some folks in Commerce decided to try again with a novel approach after the town was washed away in 1995. I think they made it through 2001 and 2008. But 2011 swamped them and they gave up and cleared out. Then 2013 and again 2015 and 2016 all topped those walls. Did I say it's been raining? By Thursday those walls will be underwater again as the river is predicted to set it's 2nd highest crest in the region and knock 1995 down to third place.

Joe

 

[waday]

the "500 year" (that's what the experts call them)

Experts typically don't like the terms like "500-year flood"... it's really a probability based on a recurrence interval. A 500-year flood is really "a flood with a 500-year recurrence interval". Such a flood has a 0.2% chance of occurrence in any given year.

 

[Ysarex]

the "500 year" (that's what the experts call them)

Experts typically don't like the terms like "500-year flood"... it's really a probability based on a recurrence interval. A 500-year flood is really "a flood with a 500-year recurrence interval". Such a flood has a 0.2% chance of occurrence in any given year.

Yeah, my bad being a bit lose with the terms. I'm being swayed at the moment by the news media as we prepare for a repeat of the flood of 2015. These are really flash flood events but they have gotten increasingly frequent and all the talking heads on the local news love to say "500 year flood" and then stick the mic in the face of some rep from the Corps.

Joe

 

[waday]

the "500 year" (that's what the experts call them)

Experts typically don't like the terms like "500-year flood"... it's really a probability based on a recurrence interval. A 500-year flood is really "a flood with a 500-year recurrence interval". Such a flood has a 0.2% chance of occurrence in any given year.

Yeah, my bad being a bit lose with the terms. I'm being swayed at the moment by the news media as we prepare for a repeat of the flood of 2015. These are really flash flood events but they have gotten increasingly frequent and all the talking heads on the local news love to say "500 year flood" and then stick the mic in the face of some rep from the Corps.

Joe

Sorry for being annoying, haha. Being in that field (one of my previous titles was "hydrologist"), news media outlets get annoying when floods happen. News media loves to say 500 year flood, because then they get the chance to be sensational with their terminology. Then, people wonder why two "500-year floods" happen in 10 years.