Well, my mind might be playing tricks on me, but I do believe #3, as the horizon is straight (It isn't in #1 and #2 ?), and there is no bird (as in #2?) which I originally thought might be a speck of dust on my screen.
About the shot, I am curious if you have tried cropping off some of the right hand side to move the tree a tad bit off centre? Other than that, I love the ripples in the water, the deep blue of the sky and the clouds. Nice picture