It's D9x00, D7x00 or D400 season... wants and predictions?

[ruifo]

The camera business is in serious decline, and has been for four straight years now. I think the market for D300 replacements is very small now, and confined mostly to a small, rather select group of camera buyers. The kind of people who hang out on forums, and who are very serious are the ones who want pro-like features in $1599 price point "semi-pro" bodies...and I just do not think the market for those cameras is as large as some people think; I think the forum amplification effect makes it seem like a D400 is needed by more people than there are actual buyers: the real money-makers for the camera companies are the lower-end bodies in the first two slots price-wise. So, D3xxx and D5xxx, followed by the D7xxx class, with the flagships being only a teeny-tiny part of actual sales, but carrying with them a lot of cachet.

The higher-end, semi-pro bodies in the $3,500-$3,000 price, ie the Canon 5D Mark III and Nikon D800...THOSE seem to be the profit centers that have replaced the $1699 7D and D300s in the sales pyramid...I think the camera makers have realized the $3,000-$3500 price cameras are now entrenched among serious enthusiasts, pros, and pro-wannabes, so...they are not very concerned with the D300s replacement, and Canon has let the 7D stagnate since 2009, with nothing of an update...Nikon does the "s" refreshes from time to time on some models.

photokina 2014 (properly spelled photkina, with NO caps) might be a disappointment to those who want the camera universe to be improved in the way it was when he camera market was expanding, but the market is definitely shrinking now. Still, it would be nice to see advancement in capabilities like buffer and FPS and so on with a D9xxx, or a D400, but it seems like Nikon and Canon have both shifted a LOT of attention to the high-end mid-level bodies like the 70D and D7100, for sales volume at "reasonable" prices. There is one thing I see good: Expeed 4 for Nikon in the new D810 seems to have allowed higher frame rates and better focusing; from what Thom Hogan says, there are more than 50 differences between the D800/D800e and the D810, and the focusing is now VERY close to that of the D4s, and does not have that same slight, occasional lagginess the D800 has compared to the D4 in focusing on tough targets. To me, that seems like the big deal: the new Expeed 4 processor MIGHT be one of the keys for the next-gen bodies...so maybe now with Expeed4 a reality, Nikon can bump up the stakes bit and get to a D9300 and a D7300 and/or a D400. They certainly have the SENSOR for it, 36MP, and now they have an engine that can actually handle all the associated tasks with such big files.

Very good points, Derrel,.

To add, last year this article here inked was released:

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The Interchangeable-Lens Camera Market is Now Bigger Than Point-and-Shoots


The Interchangeable-Lens Camera Market is Now Bigger Than Point-and-Shoots


Published on July 15, 2013 by David Becker



It’s official — the point-and-shoot market is dying, while DSLRs and other interchangeable lens systems champion the cause for standalone cameras.


A new report from retail researchers NPD tallies U.S. sales of $2.1 billion worth of interchangeable lens cameras between June 2012 and May 2013, an increase of 5 percent over the same period a year ago. U.S. sales of compact cameras, meanwhile, plunged 26 percent, to $1.9 billion. This is the first time interchangeable lens cameras have surpassed the sleek-and-shiny segment.


Analysts say the drop is (surprise!) due to smartphones, which have been eating away at the point-and-shoot market since 2009. Manufacturers such as Olympus and Fujifilm are trimming or eliminating their compact lines to focus on higher end offerings.


Yet plenty of people still care about image quality (or at least want to look like they do), hence the proliferation of what used to be the high end of the camera market.


The upshot is if that people are going to schlep around a dedicated camera these days, they want it to be worth the trouble.


Which seems pretty obvious. Yet apparently not obvious enough to prevent speculation such as ZDNet‘s “Have smartphones killed the SLR” online debate (resounding reader answer: “No&#8221, which posits that superphones such as the 41-megapixel Lumia 1020 are turning SLRs into a “niche” market just a notch above wet collodion process enthusiasts.


“The DSLR’s bread and butter market — the consumer, the prosumer and photography enthusiast — no longer needs or even wants to carry these beasts anymore,” asserts ZDnet.


This may have some truth to it, but it’s still a big stretch to assume those sore-necked enthusiasts are ditching everything in favor of smartphones. Anyone heard of the mirrorless segment, which continues to toy with the perfect delta between portability and image quality?



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I'm not sure how 2014 will end up. Recent articles point out the decrease in DSLRs will not be as fast as predicted (by some).

=> A Look at Why DSLRs Still Sell Much Better than Mirrorless Camera Systems

=> Death of the DSLR? What's in store in 2014 for photography? - Bob Atkins Photography

=> Photokina 2014 Preview ? What to Expect? | THEME


Hopefully, Nikon and/or Canon will be smart enough to launch mirroless bodies able to use their DLSR mounts. But I guess that will still take some time, for market segment segregation.

I am indeed curious about the photokina 2014.

 

[enyceckk]

I wonder how much D7200/D9300 will retail for..$1.3k? If so, I might need to wait for refurb.

 

[Designer]

I'd rather camera makers continue working on ISO and buffers and such. Not MP

MP sells cameras. Like horsepower (HP) in cars.

Continuing the car analogy; lots of horsepower doesn't necessarily equate to excellent handling.

 

[Derrel]

I read that one fellow's photokina preview. He's in love with his Nikon Df and Zeiss 28mm f/2 combo, and spoke very positively about it, but I'm not sure about the idea of Nikon making additional models based off their Df, although that might be theoretically possible, sure. His mention that the Canon 5D-III is three years old, and that a Mark IV was expected soon is something I had not thought much about, but perhaps he's right. The mention of a Sony produced (?) 54-megapixel sensor with on-chip focus detection....ummm...yeah, I think that definitely really is in the works. I've heard multiple rumors about this "fifty-four megapixel" camera, but I have heard rumors that both Canon, and Sony, have developed one. So...I dunno.

I think like designer says, megapixels sells cameras, like horsepower does with cars. At least MP sells cameras to a certain segment of the buying public; I think the whole "good enough" level has already been reached for the vast majority of shooters/buyers at 24 million pixels, and with 36 million on FX Nikon, the pixel count is more than adequate for most people; Canon 's 5D-III has what is is? 23.1 MP? it's under 24, and they added like 1.3 MP over the 5d-II's 22-MP count, and the photos coming out of 5D-II and 5D-III cameras are plenty for most users, although the "landscape crowd" likes the 36MP cameras, there are plenty of people for whom 36 million pixels per click is, really, overkill. For people who shoot high numbers of shots per assignment, I think going beyond much more than 24MP is seen as a burden more often than a benefit; notice that the Nikon D4s is in the 16MP range and the Canon 1Dx similarly lower in MP count than what is possible. Because for many people, for many uses, 16 million quality pixels yields a good, quality image that is easy to handle and transmit and store.

The one thing the photokina preview article hit on that would be cool is the idea linked from the Nikon memo: to design and make a Nikon F-mount mirrorless camera, similar to the new Sony A7 series cameras, which are mirrorless, and full-frame. **IF** Nikon could make a FF mirrorless body with electronic first-curtain shutter (a la the new D810 and Sony A7), that means that in live view there'd be no slamming closed of a mechanical shutter, then immediate re-opening of said shutter to begin exposure,so that would allow for low vibration levels AND a quieter shutter sound. The lack of electronic first curtain shutter is what caused the vibration issue in the 36MP Sony A7r and that God-awful clattery shutter on the A7r. If Nikon took the Df's retro looks and dials, and COPIED Fuji's new XT-1's dials and retro design, there would be a nifty new mirrorless market for them. With 70 million lenses already in the real world!

But you know what? I really think the D810 is all we'll see exhibited. I have about this much (.) faith in Nikon's ability to innovate. They can iterate, sure. D40 to D40x! D80 to D90! D7000 to D7100! SB 800 to SB 900! 200 VR to 200VR with nano-crystal lens coatings! Woo-hoo! But really, I think the management of Nikon is a bunch of fricking idiots, with great engineers and great techs and assemblers, but the suits running the company are clueless, and they are really isolated from real-world users' needs for software and modern "internet era" workflow ideas. They FAILED to iterate the D300s and the D700--two of their most visible and most successful offerings. They failed to iterate the D3x to a real high-res pro-grade body with superb battery and top-shelf features, so there is no D4x. The D800's 36MP file size has "put off" many wedding/family/lifestyle shooters, who see the Canon 5D-III as the better solution for wedding/family photography of file size and features. I see Nikon as being where Ernst Leitz was in 1954...

 

[greybeard]

One big problem I see with a D400 or D9300 would be the price point. Now you have the D7100 at around $1100.00 and the D610 at around 1900 more or less. Do you make it more expensive than the D610? Would people pay more for a pro grade crop frame when they can get a FF D610 for less? Just not much room in the lineup.

 

[Derrel]

One big problem I see with a D400 or D9300 would be the price point. Now you have the D7100 at around $1100.00 and the D610 at around 1900 more or less. Do you make it more expensive than the D610? Would people pay more for a pro grade crop frame when they can get a FF D610 for less? Just not much room in the lineup.

The expression "Painted one's self into a corner," pops into my mind. Nikon's entire product matrix has just become out of touch with customers/users.