missing plane

[Gavjenks]

at this point, I am assuming it already is found. someone knows where it is. They would have to by now.

Based on what?

The software does not exist at this point to automatically search over 1,000,000 square miles, probably with satellites that only have 1m^2 precision or so (ones exist that have more, but they are very narrow angle of view and inefficient for something like this and they would be likely occupied on more important missions), and actually detect plane debris with any reliability.

Remember, it's NOT a big plane shaped image. If it crashed, it's a bunch of little 1 pixel maybe bits of image noise, which somehow the software has to distinguish from waves to identify them as chunks of plane instead of reflections (and if it landed, it's in a hangar and you won't see it anyway, nor be able to distinguish it from almost any other plane). That sort of image detection technology simply doesn't exist yet.

Honestly, the technology for identifying whole intact planes/buildings automatically is not even that super great -- the military seriously still outsources this sort of stuff to humans on the internet on places like Amazon Mechanical Turk (I'm not kidding) for entire building identification. Using software on low-res images to detect little pieces of them amidst literally a sea of noise? No way.

Which means you either need many more than 3 weeks of scanning with higher-res/high-demand satellites/planes, or maybe some humans might be able to detect possible hits from the low res data. But a human examining a 1,000 x 1,000 pixel image at a rate of 1 per minute, working 40 hours a week would require approximately 30 years to go through all of the 3 trillion square meters of data from within the plane's fuel range.

To go through the data manually in a mere 3 weeks would thus require 500+ trained image analysts. Nobody cares THAT much.

To search by plane and ship over a 600 mile radius would require similarly astronomical amounts of time or resources, that probably don't even exist in quantities sufficient to do this in 3 weeks, assuming they had nothing better to do even (which most of them do). I don't know where you're getting the notion that it "must have" been found after 3 weeks.

 

[bribrius]

at this point, I am assuming it already is found. someone knows where it is. They would have to by now.

Based on what?

The software does not exist at this point to automatically search over 1,000,000 square miles, probably with satellites that only have 1m^2 precision or so (ones exist that have more, but they are very narrow angle of view and inefficient for something like this and they would be likely occupied on more important missions), and actually detect plane debris with any reliability.

Remember, it's NOT a big plane shaped image. If it crashed, it's a bunch of little 1 pixel maybe bits of image noise, which somehow the software has to distinguish from waves to identify them as chunks of plane instead of reflections (and if it landed, it's in a hangar and you won't see it anyway, nor be able to distinguish it from almost any other plane). That sort of image detection technology simply doesn't exist yet.

Honestly, the technology for identifying whole intact planes/buildings automatically is not even that super great -- the military seriously still outsources this sort of stuff to humans on the internet on places like Amazon Mechanical Turk (I'm not kidding) for entire building identification. Using software on low-res images to detect little pieces of them amidst literally a sea of noise? No way.

Which means you either need many more than 3 weeks of scanning with higher-res/high-demand satellites/planes, or maybe some humans might be able to detect possible hits from the low res data. But a human examining a 1,000 x 1,000 pixel image at a rate of 1 per minute, working 40 hours a week would require approximately 30 years to go through all of the 3 trillion square meters of data from within the plane's fuel range.

To go through the data manually in a mere 3 weeks would thus require 500+ trained image analysts. Nobody cares THAT much.

To search by plane and ship over a 600 mile radius would require similarly astronomical amounts of time or resources, that probably don't even exist in quantities sufficient to do this in 3 weeks, assuming they had nothing better to do even (which most of them do). I don't know where you're getting the notion that it "must have" been found after 3 weeks.

ummm. no

I can't believe there is a pay only room ? (non-political statement)

I also can't believe they haven't found anything yet related to the plane. Not a thing.

The earth has a surface area of 197,000,000 square miles. The plane is 242 feet long with a 199 foot wing span. Like looking for a needle in an entire Section of hay field.

This isn't like that though is it? Looking for a downed plane, taking a long time, isn't what is unusual here. What is unusual here is they don't even know if it went down. There is a multination campaign going on looking for it. The transponder was shutoff to try to hide its flight path. No one has spoken up to claim credit for hijacking it yet and it appears for whatever reason to have totally diverted from its flight path..
Other missing planes, they are pretty sure they crashed, they have some record of its path and it stayed pretty much on path with a transponder, and they don't have this many nations looking for it. I wouldn't suggest it is easy to find a plane in a vast ocean. But they are making a big show of this, and this plane it appears someone purposely wanted it not to be found. The most likelihood is a probably hijacking, but usually in a hijacking someone takes credit for its destruction or asks for a ransom. One could assume a malfunction causing a crash, but in such case not a single radio message or alert? Seems it was purposely meant to , "disappear".

im pretty sure we do have the technology to track and find that plane. But perhaps you are right when you say "nobody cares THAT much". so far I have seen use of generic imaging satellites, like weather satellites. if they have a thousand satellites orbiting the earth what are the other 800 radar and war satellites doing?
sorry guys, ive been out of the military now for years. But even then, I think if we really wanted to we would have known where that thing was. And im pretty sure the technology has improved a lot since then. I just really, don't believe it.

 

[tirediron]

...The transponder was shutoff to try to hide its flight path.

Isn't this just supposition? How do we know that it was turned off and didn't simply fail?

...No one has spoken up to claim credit for hijacking

Again, how do you know it was a highjacking?

...But they are making a big show of this, and this plane it appears someone purposely wanted it not to be found.

Have you ever been involved in an open-ocean SAR?

... The most likelihood is a probably hijacking, but usually in a hijacking someone takes credit for its destruction or asks for a ransom. One could assume a malfunction causing a crash, but in such case not a single radio message or alert? Seems it was purposely meant to , "disappear".

Sounds rather Tom Clancy-eque to me.

...im pretty sure we do have the technology to track and find that plane. But perhaps you are right when you say "nobody cares THAT much". so far I have seen use of generic imaging satellites, like weather satellites. if they have a thousand satellites orbiting the earth what are the other 800 radar and war satellites doing?
sorry guys, ive been out of the military now for years. But even then, I think if we really wanted to we would have known where that thing was. And im pretty sure the technology has improved a lot since then. I just really, don't believe it.

It just ain't that easy.

 

[bribrius]

...The transponder was shutoff to try to hide its flight path.

Isn't this just supposition? How do we know that it was turned off and didn't simply fail?

...No one has spoken up to claim credit for hijacking

Again, how do you know it was a highjacking?


Have you ever been involved in an open-ocean SAR?

... The most likelihood is a probably hijacking, but usually in a hijacking someone takes credit for its destruction or asks for a ransom. One could assume a malfunction causing a crash, but in such case not a single radio message or alert? Seems it was purposely meant to , "disappear".

Sounds rather Tom Clancy-eque to me.

...im pretty sure we do have the technology to track and find that plane. But perhaps you are right when you say "nobody cares THAT much". so far I have seen use of generic imaging satellites, like weather satellites. if they have a thousand satellites orbiting the earth what are the other 800 radar and war satellites doing?
sorry guys, ive been out of the military now for years. But even then, I think if we really wanted to we would have known where that thing was. And im pretty sure the technology has improved a lot since then. I just really, don't believe it.

It just ain't that easy.

you rule out and add up coincidences. im not pretending to know. im totally out of the loop. I just don't believe it.

 

[table1349]

...The transponder was shutoff to try to hide its flight path.

Isn't this just supposition? How do we know that it was turned off and didn't simply fail?


Again, how do you know it was a highjacking?


Have you ever been involved in an open-ocean SAR?


Sounds rather Tom Clancy-eque to me.

...im pretty sure we do have the technology to track and find that plane. But perhaps you are right when you say "nobody cares THAT much". so far I have seen use of generic imaging satellites, like weather satellites. if they have a thousand satellites orbiting the earth what are the other 800 radar and war satellites doing?
sorry guys, ive been out of the military now for years. But even then, I think if we really wanted to we would have known where that thing was. And im pretty sure the technology has improved a lot since then. I just really, don't believe it.

It just ain't that easy.

you rule out and add up coincidences. im not pretending to know. im totally out of the loop. I just don't believe it.

So what you are saying is that you beliefs in this situation are based on a S.W.A.G. on your part.

 

[bribrius]

Isn't this just supposition? How do we know that it was turned off and didn't simply fail?


Again, how do you know it was a highjacking?


Have you ever been involved in an open-ocean SAR?


Sounds rather Tom Clancy-eque to me.

It just ain't that easy.

you rule out and add up coincidences. im not pretending to know. im totally out of the loop. I just don't believe it.

So what you are saying is that you beliefs in this situation is based on a S.W.A.G. on your part.

well I wouldn't go that far....
who knows, maybe they will turn it up...

 

[table1349]

you rule out and add up coincidences. im not pretending to know. im totally out of the loop. I just don't believe it.

So what you are saying is that you beliefs in this situation is based on a S.W.A.G. on your part.

well I wouldn't go that far....
who knows, maybe they will turn it up...

waffling (ˈwɒf[SUP]ə[/SUP]lɪ&#331

Definitions

noun

• (British, informal, pejorative) the act of speaking or writing in a vague and wordy manner
• (US) if someone is waffling on an issue or question, they cannot decide what to do or what their opinion is about it

How to Grow a Backbone

 

[bribrius]

So what you are saying is that you beliefs in this situation is based on a S.W.A.G. on your part.

well I wouldn't go that far....
who knows, maybe they will turn it up...

waffling (ˈwɒf[SUP]ə[/SUP]lɪ&#331

Definitions

noun

• (British, informal, pejorative) the act of speaking or writing in a vague and wordy manner
• (US) if someone is waffling on an issue or question, they cannot decide what to do or what their opinion is about it

How to Grow a Backbone

yeah I know. im purposely avoiding. what was the question again? lol.
oh yeah, the aliens got it. Preemptive alien invasion

 

[Gavjenks]

ummm. no

The earth has a surface area of 197,000,000 square miles. The plane is 242 feet long with a 199 foot wing span. Like looking for a needle in an entire Section of hay field.

My numbers were for a 600 mile radius, not the whole earth, since the plane didn't have enough fuel to go anywhere in the Earth (unless it refueled in which case hijacking in which case it's not gonna get found by looking at satellites anyway)

Other missing planes, they are pretty sure they crashed, they have some record of its path and it stayed pretty much on path with a transponder

Yep, you just described exactly the differences that explain why you SHOULDN'T assume that they have found it yet, unlike normal plane crashes (which by the way they definitely don't always actually find very quickly).

what are the other 800 radar and war satellites doing?

What they were sent up there to do, duh! Telling drivers which way to go to get to the nearest Costco, routing phone calls, telling armies where to go bomb things, helping people figure out whether to bring umbrellas to work, etc.
Also most of them aren't equipped to that sort of task anyway. There are currently 1,167 artificial operational satellites total. Of those about 100 are for surveillance of some sort, of which one should assume only a tiny fraction would be devoted long term to something as frivolous as looking for some random commercial airliner, especially since everybody on it is already long since either dead or being held somewhere that satellites won't find them.

 

[manaheim]

****ing Smurfs did it. The ****ing smurfed the ****ing smurf right out of the ****ing sky.

****ing smurfs.

As a side note, has anyone ever pondered the implication of using your species name as an expletive?

 

[ratssass]

Manny..........PLEASE DON'T INTERRUPT!!!...I've now lost my whole train of thought.....

 

[mishele]

runnah took it!!

 

[PropilotBW]

they could just forget about it and stop looking for it. i cant imagine they are going to find enough in tact to be much good at this point. Even if they figure out what happened (unlikely), well doesn't matter much now anyway does it?

You obviously have no clue how aviation has become so safe, do you? All procedures are developed from others mishaps, to avoid it from happening again. Comair in Lexington, Ky; Air France; Colgan in Buffalo, NY, just to name the most recent which have resulted in drastic government and corporate regulation changes for operators.

 

[AlanKlein81 21]

It took them about 50 years to find the Titanic at about two miles deep , a huge ship, where they knew the general location where it sank. They may never find this plane assuming it wasn't hijacked and hidden for some nefarious future purpose.