Photokina 2016: New Nikon products ? (Thom Hogan)

[Solarflare]

What Do I Expect To See from Nikon at Photokina? | DSLRBodies | Thom Hogan

See also:
Nikon Df successor wishlist
D750 Successor Wishlist
D810 Successor Wishlist

Let’s start by listing the cameras that are due for updates:

• D610 (overdue)
• D750 (not quite due yet)
• D810 (due)
• D3500 (overdue)
• Nikon 1, all models (overdue)
• Coolpix P several models (overdue)

D3500: I expect this series to die in this form. The price difference to D5x00 is just not big enough & the D5x00 line keeps offering better DSLRs for less money than the current D3x00 line because theres so many older D5200 and D5300 still around.

Instead its possible Nikon starts making the D3500 a pseudo-mirrorless thus being able to price it very competitively and to make the camera a lot more compact, possibly even smaller than the Canon 100D.

D610: I expect this series to die, because the D750 was priced the same as the D6x0 at release and is thus already the appointed successor; so I think the D6x0 wont get a separate successor on top of that. I also think demand for a full frame DSLR with inferior technology is just not that high to really justify a cheaper line of full frame cameras at this point.

D750: I expect this to update at the start of 2017. This is the Nikon DSLR closest to my personal demands and I hope for a lot of improvements; we'll see which actually come through. I am however perfectly open to switch to the D8x0 or Df lines if they have offers that meet my needs in a better way.

D810: This probably will update to Photokina or shortly after. The D820 will probably bring a backlit sensor, more Megapixels (but not many more, just to keep up with Sony A7r and Canon 5Ds without losing overall performance), maybe even less base ISO (i.e. 50 or even lower), the new D5/D500 AF sensor for sure, also 4k video, and various other non-original improvements. I am hoping for a tilting screen and a faster way to select focus point in lifeview (for example by touchscreen).

Let’s also list the cameras that we’d expect to be updated in 2017:

• Df (already hinted there will be an anniversary model)
• D5500 (due)
• D7200 (due)

The Df could be a great camera if the concept would be done a lot better.

For example better support for manual focus - getting viewscreens would rock big time, as would focus peaking in lifeview etc. A true D5x00 style flipscreen that could be turned around completely would also rock.

The sensor - I would want to grade it down to 12 Megapixel and make this the dedicated 4k camera, but you need a battery grip or an external recorder to actually use it that way.

Also please an a lot less hilariously stupid user interface.

D5500: ...um.

D7200: Same. Well, on second thought, after the D7100 fixed the AF and the D7200 fixed the buffer size, what the D7200 still lacks for a good sports camera is fps, so maybe they'll add that. I dont expect the D7300 to get the D5/D500 AF system at this point already and the fps will probably still keep a respectful distance to the D500's 10fps, so probably the D7300 can be a very good pick for a general camera as well.

There’s nothing particularly wrong with the current D610 or D750 models and they’re still competitive at their current prices; any update of them is likely to be centered around SnapBridge and perhaps a couple of other D5 generation features (e.g. radio-controlled flash support). Such a minor update would be easy enough to do.

I would stare blankly and move on if that would be the "upgrade". WiFi doesnt matter to me at the moment (because Snapbridge or not, Nikon WiFi right now sucks big time) and I dont even have the only flash unit with Nikon style radio control right now, nor do I plan to get that one any time soon.

Its funny how Thom Hogans ideas about the D750 are so drastically different from my own. He basically declared the D750 to be superflous while it was a gift from heaven to me - as if Nikon had asked me to design the D610 successor myself. And now he basically suggest an update compareable with the "update" from Ricoh GR to GR2. I sincerely hope Nikon isnt THAT stupid.

The D810 is now starting to look like the lowest resolution of the full frame high resolution models, plus the D5/D500 autofocus system really needs to be in any update of the camera. So this camera needs a complete sensor and internals overhaul to bring it into the D5 generation. This is a big, tough, lots-of-engineering update and is also sensor-timing sensitive. Look at how hard the D500 was to pull off simultaneously with the D5.

Hogans ideas about the D8x0 are far better than his ideas about D610/D750.

The D3300 is another camera that’s remarkably competitive still.

As I said: not really. Older D5200 and D5300 are superior cameras for cheaper. The D3300 is thus superflous.

The Coolpix P series seems to have transitioned to DLs.

I think such cameras a serious waste of good money either way.

The only Coolpix that holds any interest to me is the A, and that was a very substantly inferior design to the Ricoh GR. Mainly because the GR has a fantasic user interface for a compact while the A is an unimaginative conventional - and thus painful to use for a photographer - design.

but would D750 users step backwards from 24mp to 20mp?

Pffffft ! Seriously ?!? Not a relevant difference. As I said, give me 12 Megapixels and a non-crop 4k Video on the Df, that would be uber to have.

At the moment DX doesn’t need any new sensors. Nikon is already at 24mp [...]

Actually: Backlit everyone ASAP, on all sensors, FX and DX. A friggin 30% more light is nothing to sneeze at. Copper wiring etc of course is also very welcome.

In fact, here’s the only thing Nikon’s DX sensors actually need: on-sensor PDAF support for better Live View focus performance.

Fast AF focus point selection in lifeview is necessary too, for ALL Nikon DSLR.

Lenses. Wait, what? Yeah, I pulled a fast one on you. Wrote about cameras and then suddenly pull lenses out of my keyboard. But yes, I think that some of Photokina for Nikon this year has to be about lenses.

Theres (as always) a ton of good lenses Nikon could do and I'm very surprised Hogan hasnt written more about that one ?!? Ideas:

- PC-E 17mm f4.5

- AF-S 28mm f1.4
- AF-S 24-70mm f4
- AF-S 200mm f4 VR micro
- AF-S 400mm f4 VR (with builtin 1.4x extender)
- AF-S 400mm f5.6 VR

- AF-S 10-16mm f4.5-5.6 VR DX (really high image quality, but very affordable)
- AF-S 16mm f1.8 DX
- AF-S 24mm f1.8 DX
- AF-S 55mm f1.8 DX
- AF-S 50-140mm f2.8 VR DX

(1) resurrect Nikon 1

If you notice you ride a dead horse - dismount.

This system was a stillbirth from the very start. The miniature sensor asserted from the get go this system will always have a bad bang for the buck ratio. The poor camera design, all over the place and highly inconsistent, did the rest. Certain special abilities made it a niche product for special demands, but as a general camera this system just sucks.

People who need a really small camera will always get a far, far better product with Micro Four Thirds. It offers a larger sensor, far more ambitious and consistent cameras and an extensive selection of glas.

(2) launch a new mirrorless system of some sort, which could use the CX mount with a larger sensor;

In other words, create a second low ambition "wash me but dont make me wet" system that doesnt endanger Nikons DSLRs, but is also forseeably doomed from the very start by its very design, simply by a completely arbitrary and pointless choice to use a lens mount with no future for no good reason whatsoever.

(3) go nuclear on the “DSLRs are what we do, and they’re better choices” option.

By FAR the best of these choices and a good idea in general.

[(4) <missing an obvious option here>]

The heck ? So what about an actually AMBITIOUS mirrorless system ?!?!?!?

Which leaves us #2, which is exactly what the best rumors out of Tokyo have us believing.

That doesnt bode well.

 

[PaulWog]

What if the D6xx series continues and the price-point lowers. I can't see a D650 coming out that doesn't beat out the current D750, so I would guess both D6xx and D7xx lines need to update at the same time (or D7xx first).

The Nikon DF concept is basically a mirrorless body with premium Leica-feeling, mostly metal construction. It's unfortunate that Nikon has such a large flange distance, not sure if that affects mirrorless possibilities with the same lenses?

Full frame will eventually come down in price at its entry level.

 

[Solarflare]

Long flange distance causes:

(a) Issues with wide angle lenses, since they have to be retrofocus - thus they have to be more complex than necessary with systems that have short flange distances, such as Leica M or the new mirrorless cameras. It also introduces all kinds of issues with steep angles of light though, something that doesnt work well with digital sensors and digital sensor covers.

(b) Of course also the camera will be larger.

In my impression cheap full frame cameras dont make too much sense because the lenses for them will still not be cheap.

Besides you can already get an extremely cheap full frame setup with getting a D700 or D3 plus old Nikon AI lenses. Fantastic image quality for an insanely low price. But of course the reserve of old Nikon AI lenses isnt unlimited and new lenses of this quality cannot be produced that cheap.