CIPA data certifies 2018 was the worst year for the digital camera market

[dolina]

The above graph on interchangeable lens camera shipment December data from CIPA: While the market for interchangeable lens cameras and lenses is down, it’s been the digital compact market (point & shoots) which has suffered most, although the carnage of the last five years seems to be levelling off. Holding up the interchangeables market is the mirrorless segment, which according to more detailed CIPA figures, in fact increased year-on-year sales compared to 2017 by 1.4 percent in volume and 23 percent in value.


So while compacts are falling way behind, DSLRs are falling behind as well, which has resonances with that old joke about the two hikers being pursued by a bear. DSLR’s still outsell mirrrorless cameras by 6.62 million (61.5%) to 4.14 million (38.5%), but in dollars terms, the value of the two segments is about equal.

Source: Mirrorless edging ahead in CIPA camera stats - Inside Imaging

Canon recently said they expect two more years of market shrinking until market stabilizes.

Source: Newly published CIPA data certifies 2018 was the worst year for the digital camera market - mirrorlessrumors

 

[Strodav]

The total number of pictures taken world wide keeps growing every year, but I think that's attributable to smartphones being more readily accessible and becoming more and more capable every year. That does not bode well for the dslr or mirrorless markets, which will probably continue to get smaller every year.

 

[dolina]

Based on the numbers I have seen point & shoots sales will shrink further and product lines will only survive by specialized applications that smartphones have yet to enter.

Specialization could be in terms of image quality, 360 camera, super zoom, ruggedness and water-proofness.

DSLR will eventually be replaced by mirrorless cameras. The good thing is there are adapters to make your lens work with the mirrorless bodies.

I expect consolidation of DSLR product lines, at best. This consolidation could result in a next generation of bodies or just elimination. Take example Canon.

Seven APS-C bodies: Four Rebel product lines, two xxD product lines and one 7D product line.

They could reduce this to three APS-C bodies: One Rebel, one xxD & one 7D.

Six Full frame bodies: Two 6D product lines, two to three 5D product lines and one 1D product line.

They could reduce this to three Full frame bodies: One 6D, one 5D and one 1D.

 

[Braineack]

you're counting models/products that are no longer in production...

and who cares if Canon offers 15 DSLRs or 5?

 

[dolina]

I'm counting DSLR models that are currently being sold at BH Photo.

I am speaking from the camera hardware sales point of view. If the camera market is shrinking then you either must innovate your way out of the sales slump or simplify your model lineup to lower cost.

Most firms find that, as their production output increases, they can achieve lower costs per unit.

Lower costs per unit translates to lower sale price per unit

Economies of scale are the cost advantages that a business can exploit by expanding their scale of production. The effect of economies of scale is to reduce the average (unit) costs of production.

By having so many DSLR models means your production output could never be as high as it could possibly be.

If Canon were to have 3 APS-C & 3 full frame DSLR bodies at any given time then it would mean more production output per model.

 

[TreeofLifeStairs]

Seems to me that as smartphone pictures get better and better there’s less and less of a perceived need for a “real” camera by the general public. The pro and the serious hobbiest would be the only ones still wanting the real deal.

 

[dolina]

The table above shows the CIPA sales data from 2015-2018, CIPA's projected camera sales for 2019 & Canon's projected camera sales for 2020.

Based on the CIPA 2019 & Canon 2020 sales figure I am fairly confident that companies like Canon & Nikon may not release any more new DSLR (Reflex) models anymore before July 2020 and instead put in all their R&D money into more mirrorless camera bodies and lenses that are equal or exceed the features, capability and accuracy of DSLRs sold today.

Canon CEO also noted mirrorless camera sales aren't significantly adding to its bottom line, but are instead significantly eating into the sales of DSLRs. If any R&D capital is going to cannibalize your money makers during your current product's mid-cycle then you may as well just release new generation of mirrorless camera models at the end of the product cycle of your DSLRs.

Personally, I would prefer 1 more generation of DSLRs within the next 17.5 months but market forces may force the 1D X Mark II, 5D Mark IV, 5Ds / 5Ds R, 6D Mark II and 7D Mark II to be the last full frame and high end APS-C DSLR models to be developed.

 

[dennyr]

Seems to me that as smartphone pictures get better and better there’s less and less of a perceived need for a “real” camera by the general public. The pro and the serious hobbiest would be the only ones still wanting the real deal.

I would think so.
I was born in 1960. Probably not the oldest member, but i have been around for a while now.
In 1970 every "Family" had a camera, and then one or more of the kids would often want their own. We are not talking Nikon F2 or Canon F1 of course, but a bonafide camera none the less.
The cellular phone has replaced all but the "best" cameras. Generally speaking, Parents and kids no longer have a Kodak Instamatic or any other Kodak, or a Polaroid of any type .
Not to mention the "cottage industries" that went along with film cameras.....flash cubes, photo albums, Thousands of Fotomat types of booths all over the country. The cellular camera did not just kill film and film cameras, it wiped out a giant chain of support business.
It is not unique.
Tower Records, along with places like Pacific Stereo and Stereo West died a rather quick death. I can only speak to our own experience, but regarding equipment, people under 40 listen to music in a Vastly Different manner than my wife and myself.
I still listen to records, i have several hundred, but i was Very Surprised to learn that CD's are also obsolete technology .....i had no idea, we buy them all the time.

 

[smoke665]

As per the comments above, I've believed the low end "consumer" market has been on it's way out for awhile now. As the cell phones continue to improve there just won't be a need for a low end camera, and with prices for cell phones bumping the 1k mark, most people couldn't afford a phone and camera both anyhow. As to the mirroless, the data I've seen show they aren't creating new markets, but taking away from the existing/declining current market. I'm not sure that camera makers are ready to jump on the wagon, at the expense of their existing models. All it would take is one new breakthrough in DSLR and mirrorless would be fading away. Pentax was one of the leaders in the mirroless market producing a model several years ago that was backward compatible with all the current lens lineup, and still it failed, only stayed on the market for a year. For now I'm happy with the K1Mii, and see no reason to change anything.

 

[Dave442]

With the majority of people sharing photos electronically and instantly from their phones - they have no desire for a camera that makes the process of sharing an image any more complicated than what they can do with their phone.

We know there are still a good number of DSLR users waiting to jump into the mirrorless arena so I think it is still an interesting time for photography to see where things go over the next five years (at some point during that time I expect to buy another camera).

 

[Braineack]

With the majority of people sharing photos electronically and instantly from their phones - they have no desire for a camera that makes the process of sharing an image any more complicated than what they can do with their phone.

yeah but laurels are really comfortable to rest on.