from another board but apt here

[Larry1948]

Ray L - 01:55pm Jun 24, 2004 EST (7.)

First, I think all the regulars here love film. Second I hope film and manual focus, simple cameras survive(Hey I love the 645E). However, let me play devil's advocate here.

Digital is a force like a tidal wave and it is hitting. The film industry is in utter panic and will probably be vastly different in 10 years. Film goes from mainstream photography to niche. Probably the way 4x5 sheet film is a niche compared to 35mm. Kodak may go out of business, they may sell off film. Whatever they do, it will probably be stupid-since Kodak is apparantly run in the Dilbert world. Fuji seems to have a better transition and will hopefully survive. Ilford seems more of a niche company already, but Agfa?

Look at cameras. Sony, Sanyo, and other consumer electronic companies are flexing their muscle. Cell phone cameras will outsell point and shoots. Sure there is no comparrison to medium format let alone 35mm, but as the masses go, so goes the corporations. Bronica looks really vunerable, maybe Minolta-Konica too. Hassy relies on Fuji to manufacture. I hope for Mamiya and Pentax being survivors.

Put another way an 8x10 view camera image will blow away a 35mm, but who still uses them? The convience of 35mm wins out for 99+% of people. Digital is the same. Sure a 6mp DSLR is a pretty crummy image compared to my simple 645E, but most people do not care (they only print 4"x6" anyway).

Then there is the "free film" aspect of digital, and instant review. When your bread and butter types, and for medium format that is the working portrait photographer, are going digital, so goes the neighborhood. Sadly the guys out hiking with the 645E taking nature shots like Preston and I are not really the target market.

In any event, I think 35mm is a goner, digital wins for the consumer. Medium format should survive, but probably slides more toward a niche market in the 5-10 year range. Beyond that, who knows.

It does make me pause about buying any new film equipment, and if enough people think like that, companies like Mamiya still lose. How many of you saw that Mamiya lost 40% of sales in Japan last year?

It will take guts, brains, and luck to survive. Lets hope Mamiya has all three!

I like the analogy of the tidal wave.
remember that a tidal wave crashes in where uninvited wreacks havoc and departs, leaving chaos in it's wake.
when the clean-up is done the survivors tighten their belts and get on with their lives.
I hope there are plenty of "film users/camera addicts" pro and amateur left standing and holding their equipment high and saying where is "digital" now!
comments from the Pros and Amateurs welcomed.

 

[Hertz van Rental]

I seem to remember arguments like this when CD's came out. Vinyl was dead and gone.
Well no it isn't. It's nowhere near as important as once it was but it's still there - and a lot of people reckon the sound quality was better. Same thing with valves/transistors, thatch/slate, horse/car, typewriter/pen and all the rest.
The same thing will happen to photography.
For me I have no preferences between digital and silver. The equipment is not important - it's the image that matters. Having the best quality image in the world doesn't make it a good photo. I use what is to hand, and what I have time to use.
I actually think the tidal wave has been and gone but it happened so fast we didn't notice.