mjhoward said:
You think the DX sensor goes away, why? Because it's smaller and everyone will want the larger FX sensor? Following this logic, they made a major mistake in introducing the all new CX sensor size since, in time, they'll kill all small sensors. BTW, lets assume that the difference in cost does become negligible between a DX and FX sensor in the future... the glass will still be more expensive so consumers wouldn't really save much.
These kind of things are all a matter of speculation... Educated, semi-educated, or otherwise.
I tend to agree, though... At least in the dslr line I think you will see dx sensors fade away. If the reported price of the d600 is real, you already see the beginnings of it. Why would I buy a D300s for $1600 when I could buy the D600 for $1800?
Those prices are off a bit, I think, and obviously we may see a d400 soon, but what is a d400 going to give me that would compel me to not buy the 600 for essentially the same price? Frankly I've been wondering if the d400 is ever going to show... Unless its a FX 18mp or something, why bother? A 24mp dx would be sort of ok I guess, but at what price point? The d600 basically demonstrates compression. On paper it squeezes out the tier that was the d100,d200,d300 level.
And you have reuse. Every couple years you see a lower tier model get the sensor from a bigger brother. D70 got the D100 sensor I believe... D80 got the d200 sensor, d90 got the d300 sensor... And then the d7000 kicked the d300s sensor in the ass. Even more support to the argument, if a slightly different strut.
So I think in another three years we see Fx sensors creep into the d5000 level (just reuse that d600 sensor, now cheaper to produce), and then it's pretty much over.