It Has Begun!

[Markw]

This isn't too exciting for me. I'll be looking for a D400. But lot of you will be entertained with this if you havent seen it already:

The name will be Nikon D800, the sensor will be 36MP (99% probability) | Nikon Rumors

Nothing that sounds TOO convincing to me, unless the D4x will have 42+MP. Which I doubt.

Anywho, enjoy.

Mark

 

[Overread]

You know at this rate you'll have to add £/$1000 to the price of any new DSLR just to get the computer to go with it to process the pictures. And here I was thinking digital shooting was the "free" way to shoot over film

 

[KmH]

Paying attention to those rumors is a total... waste... of... time...

 

[Kerbouchard]

For what it's worth, Nikon Rumors predicts the D800 announcement will be next month. The only problem is, they have been predicting that for the last 2 and a half years.

 

[Derrel]

For what it's worth, Nikon Rumors predicts the D800 announcement will be next month. The only problem is, they have been predicting that for the last 2 and a half years.

Well, that just means that the chances of their prediction finally coming true grows higher and higher with each passing month!!!

"One of these days,Alice, the Nikon D800's gonna hit you, right in the kisser!"

 

[Kerbouchard]

For what it's worth, Nikon Rumors predicts the D800 announcement will be next month. The only problem is, they have been predicting that for the last 2 and a half years.

Well, that just means that the chances of their prediction finally coming true grows higher and higher with each passing month!!!

"One of these days,Alice, the Nikon D800's gonna hit you, right in the kisser!"

Not to get into a math argument, but statistics don't work that way. A consistent series of wrong predictions doesn't make it more likely that their next prediction will be correct. Taking everything into account, it would typically mean that they are unlikely to be correct based on past history. Just like if you flip a coin and get tails 5 times. Doesn't make it any more likely you will get heads the next. Still a 50/50 chance.

In any case, I have zero interest in a 36 megapixel camera. If they are right, and that's what Nikon releases, I think there is a good chance it's going to sit on the shelf. Might end up being the only Nikon Pro/Consumer camera that anybody can keep in stock. If that's the case, expect D700 prices to increase with a new announcement...Much like the SB800 when the SB900 was released. Nikon can't possibly be so stupid as to chase megapixels with Canon, especially since their user base isn't asking for it and enjoys the ISO superiority. And why would they add an SD card?

Basically, if the specs on that post are correct, expect the D800 to be one of the greatest flops Nikon has ever produced.

I can say with 99% probability that the predictions aren't even in the ballpark. If they are, I will be shooting with used D3s's and D700's for the rest of my life.

 

[penfolderoldo]

The original (Japanese) site this particular rumour appeared on are claiming not only an exact announcement date but a release date too, along with a street price of £2550 / $3900...
Complete speculation, as always! wait till it's actually out!! (god, it's like kids waiting for Christmas!! lol)

 

[Derrel]

For what it's worth, Nikon Rumors predicts the D800 announcement will be next month. The only problem is, they have been predicting that for the last 2 and a half years.

Well, that just means that the chances of their prediction finally coming true grows higher and higher with each passing month!!!

"One of these days,Alice, the Nikon D800's gonna hit you, right in the kisser!"

Not to get into a math argument, but statistics don't work that way. A consistent series of wrong predictions doesn't make it more likely that their next prediction will be correct. Taking everything into account, it would typically mean that they are unlikely to be correct based on past history. Just like if you flip a coin and get tails 5 times. Doesn't make it any more likely you will get heads the next. Still a 50/50 chance..

Sorry Kerby, but your analogy presented above uses a coin flipping exercise,which is a repeated series of the same event, which can be stretched out forever, with absolutely no ending point, just the same,exact event over and over and over; the "delivery" of a new camera is similar to the delivery of a baby. There is a gestational period, and at the end of that period, the baby WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE WORLD. If we begin predicting that the "baby" will be born "tomorrow", and we know the gestational period is say, nine months from conception, our chances of being correct in the first,second,third,fourth,fifth,sixth,seventh,and eight months are not, I repeat, are NOT very high, when we state, "I think the baby will be born tomorrow." However, once the "mother" is near the end of her gestational period, and the baby's imminent arrival is near, predictions of the baby's arrival "tomorrow" become MUCH more-likely to become an accurate prediction, i.e. a "reality", relatively speaking, than the same prediction made on Day 45 during a nine-month gestational period. Right?

We're not dealing with an endless series of coin flips that can stretch out to infinity...we're waiting on a camera's delivery....we know it's actually in development right now...a prediction that it will be here "soon" has a pretty good chance of coming true, now that the delivery is expected any day now, and now that a suitable "gestational period" has actually passed...we've "seen the ultrasound pictures"...we even know the Megapixels of the baby...the mother's water is due to break any day now...people who have been waiting for the new Nikon to drop think it's gonna be here SOON...

But you're off flipping coins...and telling us, naw, no way, you were wrong before, so your chances of being right now are just as bad as they were in Month One...

 

[Nikon_Josh]

I hope you guys are right, this rumour is a complete MYTH!

If it is true, it will confirm to me that Nikon are indeed beginning to lose the plot again like they did in the early 2000's when Canon walked all over them from a great height and took the PRO market. 36 MP would be an act of desperation in my mind to get buyers back, a clear sign the increased competition that is building and building is getting to Nikon.

Anyway, I'm sure you guys are correct in your thoughts. And I think the rumours have become boring as hell recently.. a bunch of rumours about nothing.

 

[Mike_E]

I think that 36 MP would be a good thing in portraiture and landscapes as well. It would also be a joy to use at weddings in that it would allow you to crop without worry. I'd like to see how clean ISO 6400 is on it though, if it's clean enough 6400 would be sufficient for the vast majority of applications (or at least to anyone who can remember having to use a roll of ISO 800) but I'm sure there will be whiners who can't live without ISO 256,000.

You might see a bit of lag time between the camera and printers catching up though.

 

[molested_cow]

The price point... seriously?

Ok, just give me a FX D7000ish camera.... just give me FX with video that I can afford damnit!

 

[Kerbouchard]

Well, that just means that the chances of their prediction finally coming true grows higher and higher with each passing month!!!

"One of these days,Alice, the Nikon D800's gonna hit you, right in the kisser!"

Not to get into a math argument, but statistics don't work that way. A consistent series of wrong predictions doesn't make it more likely that their next prediction will be correct. Taking everything into account, it would typically mean that they are unlikely to be correct based on past history. Just like if you flip a coin and get tails 5 times. Doesn't make it any more likely you will get heads the next. Still a 50/50 chance..

Sorry Kerby, but your analogy presented above uses a coin flipping exercise,which is a repeated series of the same event, which can be stretched out forever, with absolutely no ending point, just the same,exact event over and over and over; the "delivery" of a new camera is similar to the delivery of a baby. There is a gestational period, and at the end of that period, the baby WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE WORLD. If we begin predicting that the "baby" will be born "tomorrow", and we know the gestational period is say, nine months from conception, our chances of being correct in the first,second,third,fourth,fifth,sixth,seventh,and eight months are not, I repeat, are NOT very high, when we state, "I think the baby will be born tomorrow." However, once the "mother" is near the end of her gestational period, and the baby's imminent arrival is near, predictions of the baby's arrival "tomorrow" become MUCH more-likely to become an accurate prediction, i.e. a "reality", relatively speaking, than the same prediction made on Day 45 during a nine-month gestational period. Right?

We're not dealing with an endless series of coin flips that can stretch out to infinity...we're waiting on a camera's delivery....we know it's actually in development right now...a prediction that it will be here "soon" has a pretty good chance of coming true, now that the delivery is expected any day now, and now that a suitable "gestational period" has actually passed...we've "seen the ultrasound pictures"...we even know the Megapixels of the baby...the mother's water is due to break any day now...people who have been waiting for the new Nikon to drop think it's gonna be here SOON...

But you're off flipping coins...and telling us, naw, no way, you were wrong before, so your chances of being right now are just as bad as they were in Month One...

I'll admit my analogy was imperfect so we'll use yours instead. It's not like the rumors are saying a pregnant woman will have a baby tomorrow.

It's more like the rumors are saying 'Tomorrow, Mary will have a brown-eyed baby girl, weighing 7 lb 3 oz, 19.2 inches long, and she will grow up to be a chemist'. And they have been saying it since they found out Mary was pregnant.

 

[Derrel]

Well, back to the 36 MP rumors...you know how we saw the early ultrasounds of Baby Nikon, and we THOUGHT we saw a widdle teensie-eentsie wee-wee down there??? Well, I kind of hope we're wrong about what we saw in that murky ultrasound image, 'cause I already have a son, and am hoping for a nice, calm, delicate, doll-playing daughter to balance things out...

We don't need another kid who'll break a collar bone while playing football....errr...I meant, we don't need a camera that will chew through 8-gig CF Cards like they are BBQ potato chips....and mow through DVD discs like they are chocolate chip cookies...."Hey, I just BOUGHT these danged cookies--how come there aren't any left FOR ME!!" And do we really want another kid that burns through $110 Nike shoes like they were those $21 cheapies from Payless Shoe Source???

Oh well, if it's gonna be 36MP....might as well bite the bullet and start saving up to send the kid to Stanford....errr, I mean buy a whole new computer and two new 4-terabyte NAS drives,and shift over to 32-gigabyte CF cards...

 

[Markw]

NR has updated, by the way. Specifically mentioning that the 36MP isn't confirmed. Nice evasion there.

More on the Nikon D800 | Nikon Rumors

Mark

 

[Destin]

NR has updated, by the way. Specifically mentioning that the 36MP isn't confirmed. Nice evasion there.

More on the Nikon D800 | Nikon Rumors

Mark

Thank God. That's wayy too many pixels!