The future of photographic equipment (2016 and beyond)

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From Thom Hogan: What to Expect from Nikon in 2016 | DSLRBodies | Thom Hogan

Very nice read.

Nikon:
- Whowsies ! Larger AF area from the new AF system of the D5 ? Thats actually something quite desireable.

- And what exactly is so special about 54 Megapixel ? Opposed to say 52, 56 or whatever Megapixel ? And actually, if I was designing that thing, I would give the D810s exactly 46 megapixel, i.e. 8192 effective pixels on the long side, because then its ideal for 4K recording (since that would be exactly 4 sensor pixels per 1 video pixel). Make it have no line dropping, 10 bit recording, both 4k (4096x2160 24 Hz) and UHD (3840x2160 60 Hz) and give it all bells and whistles of a good video camera (like focus peaking, zebras, false color etc) and at last it would be a great video DSLR from Nikon. In your face, Panasonic GH4 and Sony A7s !
- Either way, the D810s will have to have a backlit sensor. Would love to see them drop native base ISO to 50 or even 25, and raise native max ISO to 51,200.

- I hope they will take a long and hard look at the Fuji X-T1 before another attempt at the Df concept. I think the Df would be ideal to try out a combined OVF/EVF, especially with good support for manual focusing. Also exchangeable focusing screens would be uber. Dropping AF would be a REALLY BAD idea, IMHO, because the Df is a the DSLR aimed at older people - many of which might have issues with eye sight and really need AF.

- Honestly I expect the D610 line to be simply - dropped. IMHO the D750 is clearly the successor of the D610. The D750 is what the D600 should have been.
- I dont see more Megapixels for the D750s. Whats the point ? That certainly wouldnt be a way for Nikon to convince me to buy the D750 successor. And it would potentially lower high ISO performance, so that would make me actually PREFER the D750 over the D750s, and I doubt I would be alone. I think the D750 is priced too cheaply for the D750s to also get a backlit sensor, but I might be wrong.

- Yes, its a good idea for Nikon to come up with a D300s successor ... just dont expect me to hold breath for that moment.

- I think the D3x00 line will simply be discarded due to low demand. The D5600 is a problem, actually, since its getting hard to see what else to improve about the D5500 without turning it into a D7200.

- I actually like the P900 a lot. Amazing what Nikon can get out of such a small sensor. I just wished (a) it would be a 400-2000mm camera, not a 24-2000mm camera, for even better optical performance and I really dont need such a camera for focal lengths below 400mm (b) it should be a 3 sensor design, for archieving maximum performance possible despite the small sensors (c) well obviously I would want RAW recording (d) actually a D3-like design would make sensor because the lens for such a camera will always be really big, even with a small sensor.

- Personally I'm not excited for any new Nikon lens, and I have no clue what other people are waiting for.

- Whowsies - Even better flash ? Thats great ! I like the idea of builtin pocket wizards.

- Nikon definitely could improve a LOT about their software. Starting with sheer performance.


Canon:
FINALLY a new sensor fab, thank god ! Canon might turn much more competitive in the next months.



Fuji:
Basically I want a X100 with wealther sealing. Double card slots with backup option and an up- and downward tilting monitor with a well integrated touchscreen would also be great. Also a new, internal focusing lens for a curved, backlit Sony sensor, maybe even full frame. Yeah I know most of this stuff will definitely cost extra.
According to rumors, they work on medium format. I hope they are planning on an [relatively] affordable mirrorless system. If Fuji can accumulate the knowledge they collected with their X system into a medium format system, that would be awesome. The Pentax 645 system is nice, but its not mirrorless, it has a 44x33mm sensor in a much too huge mirrorbox actually designed for 56x42mm, it has all AF points in the middle of the image, it has like zero new lenses, you have to use the old ones and stop them down.



Leica:
I cant help wondering about them, too. They seem to be a bit without a real, global, longtime plan.

Lets just imagine for a moment that instead of the Leica S, they would have (a) taken a 44x33mm or 48x36mm sensor, instead of creating their own unique 45x30mm format and (b) made it into a mirrorless EVF based system. Wouldnt that be a really, really hot system by now ?

What they should do is hard to say. They are indeed spread very thin. Which for example means they have like NO LENSES for their new SL.



Panasonic:
Err, the GH5 cant be 8K, because that requires a ~50 Megapixel sensor (enough for 8192x4320 or at least 7680x2160 resolutions in a 4:3 sensor format), and the current MFT sensors are only 16 (or possibly soon 20) Megapixel. Also its 4 times the data. Again. For a whooping factor 16 over FullHD. Not a small feat, really. I dont expect that this soon.

I expect the GH5 to have log recording builtin, instead of asking an extra price. Maybe also 10 bit recording builtin, and some other small updates like that.



Pentax, well, rather Ricoh:
Ricoh GR - see Fuji and the X100. Whoever comes first with weather sealing will get the deal, really. All in all I will probably prefer the GR a bit over the X100 because its smaller, stealthier, and has the better optics.
Yeah full frame will finally come out. I see a serious shortage of lenses for that one, though. But maybe Zeiss, Tamron, Sigma, Tokina will return to the mount once there is a full frame option.
As I mentioned in the Fuji section, Pentax 645 is really not for me.
 
Pentax, well, rather Ricoh:
Ricoh GR - see Fuji and the X100. Whoever comes first with weather sealing will get the deal, really. All in all I will probably prefer the GR a bit over the X100 because its smaller, stealthier, and has the better optics.
Yeah full frame will finally come out. I see a serious shortage of lenses for that one, though. But maybe Zeiss, Tamron, Sigma, Tokina will return to the mount once there is a full frame option.

There are actually quite a few of the Pentax digital lenses that have been tested & work fine on full frame. Then there are lenses like the Bigma/Bigmos & DFA series which are digital designs that cover FF. In addition there is a huge range of film lenses that will be usable. I've still got 2 AF models & at least 30 MF ones, even though I never used a Pentax AF film camera. I don't see much shortage of lenses.
 
The Canon 80D rumors/leaks are pissing me off.. talking about a higher mpix count (24, 28, even 30). o_O
When are Canon gonna address the damn high ISO problem in damn APS-C cameras?

Nikon has been kicking Canon's ass for years in this department.
And no, I can't afford FF.
 
The Canon 80D rumors/leaks are pissing me off.. talking about a higher mpix count (24, 28, even 30). o_O
When are Canon gonna address the damn high ISO problem in damn APS-C cameras?

Nikon has been kicking Canon's ass for years in this department.
And no, I can't afford FF.

Can you afford to switch camps?
 
DB_Cro said:
The Canon 80D rumors/leaks are pissing me off.. talking about a higher mpix count (24, 28, even 30). o_O
When are Canon gonna address the damn high ISO problem in damn APS-C cameras?

Nikon has been kicking Canon's ass for years in this department.
And no, I can't afford FF.

Hogan's article mentions that Canon has finally decided to invest some money in developing a new sensor fabrication setup, so...there's hope for Canon users to see somewhat improved sensor performance than the same old- same old that Canon has doggedly stuck with since 2009 in most of its sensors. With the other competitors in the sensor-making world moving toward ever better performance levels, I think Canon finally felt the threat of what Hogan calls "switchers" and "leakers". The leverage and the attraction of the EF lens mount, what I call the glass investment, was at some point going to be outweighed by the increasing performance of the Sony-made sensors that Nikon, Pentax, and Sony have been using for the past several years. Canon has finally been forced to get off its butt, and to sink some money into new sensor fabrication capabilities.

I think the "damn high ISO problems in damn APS-C cameras" issue is one that Canon's new sensor technology might be able to address. it **should** be a priority for Canon. I'm not really very impressed with the detail levels their newest APS-C cameras can produce at higher ISO levels, but given how well the FF 6D's NEW sensor works, I think there's pretty good promise for the future in Canon APS-C, once they get their newer, smaller-process sensors into actual cameras.

2016 looks like it will have some exciting new cameras for people who want to update/upgrade. If Canon's newest sensor technology is really good, it might make sense to pick up something low-cost, but with an all-new sensor, even a basic Rebel. Same thing happened way back in the mid-2000's when Nikon's little D40 had better image quality than their pro-series models D1-D1h-D2h...
 
The Canon 80D rumors/leaks are pissing me off.. talking about a higher mpix count (24, 28, even 30). o_O
When are Canon gonna address the damn high ISO problem in damn APS-C cameras?

Nikon has been kicking Canon's ass for years in this department.
And no, I can't afford FF.

Can you afford to switch camps?

Not a chance, I just spent over $1,5k on lenses and I couldn't even afford a used T2i that I currently own, lol. :(
It would take a lottery win or something for anyone living here to be able to switch camps.. :)

I'd need a D750 w/ 24-70 and 70-200 all at once. o_O
Naaah.

I'll look into replacing my 17-50 with a 24-70 on the canon side right now.. so I'm set for FF at least (already have the 70-200).
That way I'd have a nice set of lenses for either sensor format.

I can wait, but damn, it's been 4-5 years since I got my T2i.. they haven't done much since! o_O
 
I hear Kodak came out with a new Brownie. They say -- and who are THEY, anyway? -- that it beats Ansco hands down and it uses that new 626 film that will blow 120 away! I think I'll stand in line Saturday morning early so I'll be sure to get one.
 
I really like the Sony Rx100 iv. I would like to see more small cameras with 1" sensors. Leica is a pointless status symbol at this point in time.
 
I'm excited to see what Sony comes up with in 2016. Some more native lenses (rumors of a 16-35 2.8 definitely has my attention) would be nice. I'm one of the last landscape shooters that I know that hasn't switched to Sony mirrorless, but I think it'll happen soon.

Canon better figure out something quick because every canon shooter (that shoots landscape) has either switched to Sony or nikon. The 5ds was a disappointment, tons of megapixels but still not much for dynamic range and shadow recovery. They'll need to really step things up with the 5d4.

Also interested to see what the 3rd body lens companies put out this year, namely tamron and sigma. It's definitely an exciting time to be a photographer with so much great gear, and competition between brands which ultimately helps us as consumers
 
I hope Sony finally puts into production that curved full frame sensor they got a patent for a couple years ago. Rumors were that it was for a fixed 35mm 1.8 lens, probably for an RX2. If the sensor is curved, it could solve some of the physics behind making a high quality fast lens that is tiny...and possibly cheaper. It could potentially be revolutionary. Some have speculated it could eventually even be built into a phone. Can you imagine a full frame sensor on your phone?!?
 
I'm excited to see what Sony comes up with in 2016.

I heard they are releasing the A7R III, A7R IV, A7R V, A7s III, A7s IV, and one new lens.
 
I'm excited to see what Sony comes up with in 2016.

I heard they are releasing the A7R III, A7R IV, A7R V, A7s III, A7s IV, and one new lens.

hah, seriously! It's like that old commercial on TV about the guy driving home with his new state of the art computer, and he sees them putting up the new billboard for the new version that got released.
 
The Canon 80D rumors/leaks are pissing me off.. talking about a higher mpix count.

upset about Canon winning the megapixel wars ?
I feel sorry for those that are shooting with 18 megapixels !
 

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