Second: Take the camera into Manual mode, and meter a simple scene, and shoot five exposures at the same, exact settings. Use f/11 and whatever shutter speed is needed.
Third: Set the lens to wide-open, f/3.5 at the shortest focal length, and repeat, with whatever speed is needed for f/3.5 and shoot the IDENTICAL scene as in step 2.
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By shooting step 2 at f/11 and manual shutter speed, you can see if the iris diaphragm, OR even worse, the camera body's mechanical diaphragm actuation mechanism, is failing, or not.
By shooting step 3 at wide-open, you have a constant aperture that will allow you to see if there's a shutter timing problem.
Reviewing the Step 2 and Step 3 image sequences, five shots at each different exposure setting, your histograms ought to be very much identical.
Thanks again Derrel.
So I followed your instructions to the letter: first five, f11, manual shutter speed set to metered recommended level:
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Then I did "f/3.5 at the shortest focal length, and repeat, with whatever speed is needed for f/3.5 and shoot the IDENTICAL scene as in step 2."
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This looked - superficially - quite promising (although there are differences), so I carried on, and then this happened:
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(Five shots further on, but with no changes to the camera or settings at all by me)
Personally I'm not sure how to interpret all this and whether the problem is "the iris diaphragm, OR even worse, the camera body's mechanical diaphragm actuation mechanism, is failing"
(PS, this was done with a brand new battery)
I did get the occasional 'err' message and sometimes the camera would wiggle the aperture on the lens before attempting the shot, which might then necessitate a second press on the remote control.
I started this thread in the (albeit vague) hope that someone would say "oh - that - always happens to D90s. All you need to do is turn it on and off again and stare at an owl while drinking green tea" or something.
So I guess the camera is shot. Unless the above suggests to someone a quick fix.
There seems to be a fair few deals on a D7100 body. I guess the 7200 is replacing the 7100. I can get one for £485 UK (as I say I don't think this can possibly be the lens as it does the exact same thing with two other lenses - unless the camera has somehow managed to break lenses).
Would this be a good choice for me? I haven't lost faith in Nikon, although it seems a shame to throw away something so seemingly well built, the D90 is seven years old and has served me well. It's been to the top of Kilimanjaro, and the north pole, and seen the Terracotta Army and Times Square - I really can't complain..!
Once again, I remain enormously grateful to you who have taken the trouble to contribute to this thread and offer assistance - much appreciated.
Rod