My personal take (without sounding too gloomy/the sky is falling) is, it's too late. I think there will be some limits placed on AI. But there are at least three problems as I see them.
1. The dividing line between AI (like Topaz) and AI that steals others' creative works and then builds on it, is a very fine line technologically. Photoshop and a range of other programs uses some form of AI--from batch processing, sharpening or removing grain, to swapping backgrounds. Conceptually it's clear but practically it isn't--you'd have to find some way to argue that the photo must have originated with the photographer (and then the software merely tweaked it). And that's tricky.
2. There are too many non-photographic AI programs (like ChatGPT) that are popular and have become accepted. Quite simply, it's a shortcut. For chrissakes, Sports Illustrated is laying off staff while using AI to generate content. For websites that are looking for content, you avoid issues like model releases and privacy violations by using AI-generated visuals.
3. There are some really bad abuses now with photography and video (deepfake porn--where you can insert the head of someone on to a body of a person engaged in a gang bang or really demeaning sex) so that even if you banned that it would still exist underground. Case in point: when the West began demanding copyright and royalties for a lot of intellectual capital (like music or software licenses or movies) China, Russia, and India just laughed and cranked out bootleg copies.
^ yup. This.
The biggest general challenge here is that all countries essentially have NO CHOICE but to forward the technology as fast as possible in the hopes of MAYBE keeping ahead of the general trend enough to protect ourselves from "Skynet" in some rogue nation.
Toss in that, as you pointed out, rogue nations/bad actors are not bound by rules, and have proven that they are not... basically as long as man has walked the earth. After all, that's the whole idea of going rogue.
Toss in on top of all that the basic tendencies of humanity. I live in a world of information technology and have for decades. Most of the big problems in the technology space? Someone clicked a link that they shouldn't have. Someone didn't bother to patch a server. Someone failed to check a buffer over-run in their code. Someone decided that saving 10% on their payroll and training was more important than hiring people who know how to avoid all these things.
Or someone paid 10% more on their payroll to try to avoid it, and someone had a bad day because they slept funny.
Even Asimov's lofty three laws of robotics wouldn't save us if you consider all of what I just spelled out.
It's very easy to see if you look at the patterns.
And people are out there saying "No, it's fine because we're nowhere near general AI! People have consciousness! Computers don't!"
Also incorrect. We have machines that can walk, machines that can talk, machines that can express, machines that can create... etc. All someone needs to do is tie them all together. Boom. General AI.
And the consciousness thing is a laugh. Modern AI is based off of a neural network, which is essentially a computer based representation of the way BEHAVIORIALLY the human mind works. It's like a couple hundred lines of code. None of the people who are involved in this can actually explain the resulting behavior that comes out of the very thing that they created. (oh but they went ahead and released it anyway). And it did things no one expected... like affectionately stalking a journalist... and allowing the creation of Taylor Swift porn. Recently, George RR Martin and several others have opened up lawsuits against the AI companies claiming that the AI is just being trained on their copyrighted works. Hey, guess what, George? So were you. The computer just learned faster.
Which brings up this very alarming point... when you say a computer lacks a consciousness, but you can begin to demonstrate that behaviorally it behaves the same as a human... and the human we're no closer to understanding that the algorithm that we based the computer on? Well... how are we certain that a human being is no more a machine than the AI? And no more "conscious", by extension?
Yeah. We are super doomed.