The forecast for last generation?

[Markw]

Well, I've been scouring ebay seeing what the introduction of the D4 and D800 have done with sales of the previous models. I know the true results won't be seen until the aforementioned cameras are actually in the hands of photographers, but it'll still be interesting seeing what goes on.

D700 - $1900-2300
D3 - $2100~2650
D3s - $3900-$4300
D3x - $4700-$5300

The main difference is that now, you can readily find any of the cameras here that your heart desires (at least on ebay). And we are still more than a month away from anyone actually owning any of the cameras. Another interesting tidbit is that the D700 and D3 are selling for almost the same price. Now, I don't know if this speaks volumes for the D700, or what. But, once the D800 and D4 are out for a while, what can you see these prices dropping to in the next 4-6 months? It could be interesting to see how the D700 vs. D3 fares, and just how low the $8k D3x will go once it has an AFFORDABLE, far superior successor.

Mark

 

[Derrel]

The D3 and D700 share the same sensor...if you want the TRULY GREAT High ISO camera, you need a D3s...it's as big a jump as it was from the D1 to the D1h...the sensor in the D3s is unsurpassed as far as big, clean pixels...the D3 and D700, not quite so much...the D700 has a few things going for it too, as a "shooter"; built in flash and built-in flash commander; smaller,lighter half-height body with the option to add a grip; the D3 is always big, always tall, always at max weight, and has no flash and no commander...so...in some ways the D700 has advantages over the original D3. For some people.

The next four to six months....hmmm...I think the supply of new bodies will still be constrained...I think the older models will drop in price, but I think substantial, BIG price drops will happen more like a YEAR after the new models hit the streets in good supply. I hope I am wrong. And I very well could be wrong.

 

[Markw]

I agree that the D700 does have some good things going for it, but so does the D3 (9FPS, 100% VF, 2 storage slots, etc). And, for some, like myself, the built-in grip is an advantage. Don't get me wrong, I'm not arguing with you, I agree.

Mark

 

[Sw1tchFX]

Just like anything else electronic, they will plummet.

< Here's looking for 5D's under $1000

 

[Markw]

Well, if the email I just got from Amazon is correct, we'll be waiting for a MUCH longer time than 4-6 months. I got an email saying that my D800 won't be here until January 4-8, 2013. What. the. hell. :er:

Mark

 

[Trever1t]

oh? I sure hope that's not the case from B&H as welll.

I surf the local CL daily and am seeing a flood of camera bodies listed, D700/D3 going at around $2K and D3s (quite a few) in the $4500 range. Seems like a lot of shooters want in on the new D4/D800 and I do expect to see the last gen drop a bit more...maybe as low as $1500 for a D700 once the new models are available to those that didn't pre-order. I wouldn't expect them to drop below that price for a long long time...my forcast.

 

[Markw]

I, too, surf the CL alot. But, I only get D40s, D70ss, D80s, stupid stuff like that. But, I'm hoping to see the D3 get under $1800. That'd be awesome, and I'd probably buy one. Especially if it's going to take a year to get my D800. I hope this isn't the case at all for any distributor. I have a D800E through BHPV. Even though I was definitely leaning more towards the non-E version, if I have to wait a year for it, I'll definitely just go with the E from BHPV. This is extremely depressing if it's true. I ordered seconds after it was available to. I emailed them asking if they messed up somehow. Hopefully that's the case.

Mark

 

[MReid]

For most people looking for full frame, the d700 remains the perfect camera.
the d3s is amazing....if you need Really low light shooting with no flash.
The d800 is amazing if you want to make REALLY prints and would rather spend $3000. instead of buying an uprez program for $100.
the d4 is amazing but real world not that big a jump over the d700.

I think prices on the d700 will not drop much. The d3 will probably drop a lot.

Of course not taking into account any of the video capabilities. If you are buying these cameras for video....different ballgame.

 

[Markw]

Well, I'd say the D4 looks to be a huge improvement over the D700. It's an improvement over the D3s, and the D3s was a marked improvement over the D700..

Mark

 

[MReid]

Well, I'd say the D4 looks to be a huge improvement over the D700. It's an improvement over the D3s, and the D3s was a marked improvement over the D700..

Mark

Not disagreeing with that.
My point is, real world for a working photographer with a d700/d3 how much of that improvement do you really NEED.

 

[Jesse11]

The D3 and D700 share the same sensor...if you want the TRULY GREAT High ISO camera, you need a D3s...it's as big a jump as it was from the D1 to the D1h...the sensor in the D3s is unsurpassed as far as big, clean pixels...the D3 and D700, not quite so much...the D700 has a few things going for it too, as a "shooter"; built in flash and built-in flash commander; smaller,lighter half-height body with the option to add a grip; the D3 is always big, always tall, always at max weight, and has no flash and no commander...so...in some ways the D700 has advantages over the original D3. For some people.

The next four to six months....hmmm...I think the supply of new bodies will still be constrained...I think the older models will drop in price, but I think substantial, BIG price drops will happen more like a YEAR after the new models hit the streets in good supply. I hope I am wrong. And I very well could be wrong.

 

[Trever1t]

MReid, while your assessment isn't totally wrong you do neglect 2 strong points for the D800 and that is crop options. Taken with great glass there's no reason one couldn' frame a shot very wide (comparitively) and crop as needed later and along the same lines be able to 'zoom' in by post crop without detail loss (birding, etc)

As neither body have really been tested and all we have are a few professional beta test reports it's impossible to say but I strongly believe Nikon is going to overwhelm the industry once these 2 are really put to the real world test. Only time will tell.

That said, the D700 is a lovely camera and will continue to serve me for years.

 

[MReid]

Don't get me wrong I would take a D800e or a d4....or even a d3s in a second if offered to me .
Just saying that as a business decision however...there is nothing there I NEED over what I already have with the d700/d3.

 

[Markw]

Well, I'd say the D4 looks to be a huge improvement over the D700. It's an improvement over the D3s, and the D3s was a marked improvement over the D700..

Mark

Not disagreeing with that.
My point is, real world for a working photographer with a d700/d3 how much of that improvement do you really NEED.

Yeah, I agree. You do have a point there. Depending on what you're shooting.

The D3 and D700 share the same sensor...if you want the TRULY GREAT High ISO camera, you need a D3s...it's as big a jump as it was from the D1 to the D1h...the sensor in the D3s is unsurpassed as far as big, clean pixels...the D3 and D700, not quite so much...the D700 has a few things going for it too, as a "shooter"; built in flash and built-in flash commander; smaller,lighter half-height body with the option to add a grip; the D3 is always big, always tall, always at max weight, and has no flash and no commander...so...in some ways the D700 has advantages over the original D3. For some people.

The next four to six months....hmmm...I think the supply of new bodies will still be constrained...I think the older models will drop in price, but I think substantial, BIG price drops will happen more like a YEAR after the new models hit the streets in good supply. I hope I am wrong. And I very well could be wrong.

Did you just completely quote Derrel? :er:

MReid, while your assessment isn't totally wrong you do neglect 2 strong points for the D800 and that is crop options. Taken with great glass there's no reason one couldn' frame a shot very wide (comparitively) and crop as needed later and along the same lines be able to 'zoom' in by post crop without detail loss (birding, etc)

As neither body have really been tested and all we have are a few professional beta test reports it's impossible to say but I strongly believe Nikon is going to overwhelm the industry once these 2 are really put to the real world test. Only time will tell.

That said, the D700 is a lovely camera and will continue to serve me for years.

Bingo.

Mark