Mirrorless sales closing the gap on DSLR.

The graph below is for the first quarter of 2017. Green is DSLR. Blue is MILC.

 

It's bound to happen, they are getting so good, especially the smaller format models

 

With sony and fuji pushing the capabilities it's sooner or later now.
Canon/Nikon is going to have to morph and Nikon's newest patents for a "hybrid" camera is interesting, and is the multi AF sensor and lenses.

 

Fuji had a 30% increase over the first quarter of last year for the camera product line. Sony and Panasonic also had increases. Nikon had 3 1/2% decline. Canon had a small increase - pretty much flat. If you extend the graph lines it looks like MILC will overtake DSLR next year, if not sooner.

 

I think Nikon is just trying to extend the life of an aging technology. I can understand clinging to a cash cow but the cash cow appears to be slowly starving. I don't know what a hybrid camera is but I assume it is a combination DSLR and MILC - live view through an EVF? What is the point of putting mirrorless technology into bulky and heavy camera only to make it more bulky and heavy? AF seems to me to be a fairly perfected technology. Modern cameras all achieve focus in a fraction of a second. A smaller fraction doesn't seem necessary. They are allowing Sony and Fuji to eat their lunch. Canon has a bigger base than Nikon but I would bet that cash cow will start a starvation diet as well. I guess we will see what happens. I know I'm not going back to the DSLR.

 

Canon contributes to both sides. Their M series is probably growing now with their two new models.

 

A couple of years ago I was shooting an event, a march. I ran into a LA Times photographer and we chatted. I showed him my XT1's and he stated "That is the future.".

 

While the graph shows declining DSLR sales it doesn't contain enough time series data to show a trend for mirrorless that could be seen as transformative. I regularly visit a busy downtown Toronto camera store and see far more customers from the buying demographic at the mirrorless end of the counter. I bought into Fuji last year. Friends have too, as well as Sony. All of us are long-term Nikon junkies. None of us are likely to upgrade our 2 year-old DX/FX bodies. Anecdotal? Yup. Suggestive? Probably.

 

Probably true. If it is a meaningful part of Canon's business then it would indicate that DSLR's are down.

 

That's interesting that chart. Where did you get it?
because I see one similar, though with much larger numbers. Is yours vendor specific?
from=> CIPA Releases Figures on Market Share of DSLRs vs. Mirrorless


To extrapolate on the chart in a bit more depth, this website may offer hints of the CIPA chart, which you can review the CIPA website for more details too

but what interesting is if DSLR sales are dropping so much, why are Mirrorless increasing by the same amount of DSLR loss? CellPhones ... people are using their cellphones as that technology ever increases. And people are sticking to their cellphones then maybe upgraing.

Camera sales report for 2016: lowest sales ever on DSLRs and mirrorless

But I do think the Mirrorless technology, and subsequent hopefully lower prices for the same or better performance (for all features) will force DSLRs to morph into mirrorless.

 

No doubt about it. Your chart shows significant gain in market share for MILC in a shrinking overall market. DSLR's are dropping like rocks, MILC are holding their own in market share while cell phones cause the entire market to decline. The prices of mirrorless will drop as volume increases. That's true of all electronic technology. I'm not sure why you think mirrorless performance is inferior to DSLR. I sure don't. I consider it comparable in a smaller, lighter package.

 

I hope they do! Much like I hope electric vehicles become more popular. Because when they do there will be more gasoline and DSLR bodies and lenses at lower prices for me.